AI

it will fall…it’s not so useful, the profits are decaying and the thing is a pitiful grift. maybe china will make it a good accesory for free software, but the “big replacement” won’t happen

venezuela

just noise to suffocate the rising tensions inside the US and the pedophile stuff, they would like the oil, but they aren’t in position for a good ole’ invasion

taiwan

if they can’t invade venezuela, what they could do about the china question?

rus-eu

Europe wants to keep pushing austerity and needs nationalist war drums to drown out the noise of german economic collapse

basically this, they are in a speedrun for fascism decay

maybe the things are like mao said: “the best moment”

I live in Taiwan nothing will happen here. The mic/CIA just use chinese nationalism to lobby for more spending on weapons.

My personal prediction:

The AI pop won’t be like any previous event. It could end US tech dominance. Though it will be damaging in real economic terms, it will be difficult to gauge the damage while it is occurring because of the amount of market intervention and statistical manipulation that’s happening right now. This will create a cyberpunk dystopia - the tech economy doing okay on paper while the rest of the economy is really shit. When the government is just propping up the big 7, the remaining economy and people outside the tech sphere will just go downhill financially.

This is all just personal opinions but I like to think it is based on material reality even if it is optimistic.

1. The AI bubble will pop and hit like the the 2008 crash on steroids. 1929 won’t happen because the dust bowl was caused by generations of ignorant farmers but that doesn’t mean there wont be bread lines. (there kinda all ready are with 16% of american families with children getting food stamps) usa will use the poverty to increase the size of ICE and the millitary.

2. I think a war in west Asia will pull Venezuela off the burner before it starts. If it does start I don’t think it will go well or america but the increased manpower from the economic crash could be used in human wave tactics. I’ve heard analysts say that usa really can’t take on Venezuela based on how much power they used in Iraq and Veitnam. America’s airforce is half as big as it was in 2003 and most of the planes are old with only 650 f35s. Venezuelans are prepared for a guerilla war in the best terrain for that kind of war. There may be some collaborators inside Venezuela but there are less than usa expects and they are going to mostly be urban middle/upper class types who won’t pick up a gun.

3. Taiwan will fizzle. Peaceful reunification is becoming more popular with average Taiwanese people especially younger people. America couldn’t possibly win in the south China sea in their current state and they have no prospects in increasing their chances in the foreseeable future.

4. europe and the banderites will remain intransigent but they have nothing left to fight with. I think Russia will take Keiv and Odessa. They’ll ransom keiv for a peace deal but keep a garrison there with the rump Ukraine as a DMZ. Russia will agree to not have troops in rump ukraine but retain the right to airstrikes against military targets with joint task force of nato Russian and Chinese inspectors doing analysis of strikes to keep them honest.

Honestly if i had to guess, they might be wanting to go for a Libya/Syria strategy of propping up local rebels, then intervening with non-occupational forces.

The Yankees have already tried this and failed -> https://lemmygrad.ml/post/9497961 and https://www.france24.com/es/20190605-en-foco-militares-venezolanos-colombia. With every failed attempt, the traitors were exposed and the people were solidified behind anti imperialism.

Now, the strategy is to bomb their way through and occupy Venezuela. However, I am confident that this will also fail as well and will drag the US reputation to the mud. We are going to see another failure even bigger than the bay of pigs in Cuba.

Hope i’m wrong but i expect the bombing of Venezuela to just start one day kinda how the Russian SMO started, it’s just how it works, incremental buildup leads to a qualitative change. Regarding Taiwan, there is really no rush for China, they are very good at the long game. Also i think the Russian situation will just stagnate.

1. Oh yeah it’s going to pop at some point and, for the west, and well pretty much every other capitalist country, it’s going to be devastating, most people are already on the brink, another crisis on the scale of, or even exceeding, that of 2008 is likely to cause a lot of turmoil (e.g., it will either kill the US outright, or at the very least rapidly speed up it’s dissolution.)

Now for other countries I think the effects are going to vary alot, china probably won’t be effected to much as the only reason why it was effected by 2008 was due to the decline in consumption in the west, which obviously isn’t as big as an issue as it was before as china pretty heavily diversified it’s export destinations as well as increased consumption internally via increasing their citizens wealth.

For Russia I would say it probably won’t be as bad as the west but will absolutely effect them, which will likely make Putin’s life a living hell at literally the worst time possible for the Russian Bourgeoise class (currently Russia is experiencing a large scale resurgence in socialism thanks to the SMO as well as increases ties to china making surpressing campaigns, complicated.) which could potentially be a catalyst for a socialist restoration.

Burggerreich and pals, honestly it depends on how bad it is and how your average westoid is, American is probably the worst in this regard, most of its citizens are already on the brink (something which is pretty notable as most Americans before the great depression and 2008 where relatively well of.) which means that the actual crash itself doesn’t nessercery need to be as bad as the great depression or 2008 to well, utterly implode the United states. Europe is well, it’s varied. Germany and France ain’t in the best positions economically but I think they are far enough away from the blast zone as well as sufficiently insulated to well, not die, TERF island, no, no, it’s fucked.

Other third world nations would probably vary alot, India relies a lot on foreign investment so will probably be hit hard, same thing with other third world nations which rely a lot on foreign investment for eco omic growth (well, western economic “investment”)

2. “Dying in the jungle, harvesting up the black gold, dying for profits…” - song by AWOL (as in defected) amerikkkan draftee Samuel Coke, US invasion of Venezuela, 2027.

Yeah, I don’t really need to tell you how badly this will end for America if they actually do this. basicslly the war is either going to be Vietnam or Another Ukraine, either way both are incredibly shit for the United States.

3. Eh, to be honest nothings going to happen with this one, again, china and the CPC are more than aware that the buggerreich is currently devouring itself wholesale, so why should the CPC like invade Taiwan now when they can just wait five, ten, maybe even less years till America is either dead or at the very least embroiled in a civil war, don’t make much sense to do it now.

4. Similar thing here, the SMO is slowly, but inevitably, being won by Russia, and really Europe wont directly intervene less it has to.

To be honest I think what’s more interesting is what’s going to follow, assuming that Russia only takes the five oblasts they currently control outright (and don’t like, try to push the Ukrainians west of the Dnieper or something) then it’s going to leave the Russians in a interesting geo-political position.

Basically ever since the Russo-Ukraine war began Russia has seen it’s economic ties shift considerably, with it’s once strong trade ties with the west being effectively obliterated, Russia is forced to rely on exporting it’s goods to eastern markets (more particularly China, Vietnam, and India.) to support it’s heavily export focused economy.

This in turn has notable political consequences, for one it means that Russia’s main trade partners (excluding India obviously) are socialist, which does have notable implications for Russia domestic political situation.

Even after three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, socialist thought and support has maintained a strong presence within Russia despite government crackdowns. This “Socialist Nostalgia” has only continued to persist and grow within Russia as internal material contradictions, in a similar manner to how they spurred dessent against Capitalist thoughts in the west and pretty much everywhere else, continues to empower socialist political movements such as the KPRF.

While in the 2010s the russian government was able to fairly effectively surpress revanchist socialist thought, the increasing ties of Russia to Socialists states, and more particularly the reliance of Russian Exports on Chinese buyers, has places the Russian Capitalist class in a rather, unfortunate for them, predicament, where there options for surpressing growing socialist appeal becomes rather limited, less they face a soft scale retaliation by their new partners (e.g., China potentially tariffing russian exports, for one.)

The AI bubble is starting to reach a fever pitch. I don’t think it will be much longer. The circular dumping of money between these corporations can’t keep going forever. Once one of them crashes it’s going to have huge repercussions as investors immediately yank their money out of the rest of them.

“https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-ceo-says-insane-not-150107180.html”

I would compare it to climate change. It’s not a thing you see happen all at once. In fact, you can go years without seeing (much) direct impact to you. “Oh, the weather is bad this year, how strange, but it has been bad in the past, right? Oh, the prices are going up, but inflation has long been a thing, right?”

But if it passes tipping points, like the transition of water going over into the boiling state, more drastic shit can start occurring in a short space of time. What that entails is difficult to say because capitalism is already a self-centered house of cards and it doesn’t have loyalty to any one nation-state. But I am hopeful that China and others like them have the power to prevent it from morphing into full on barbarism; not in a direct intervention way, at least not to the imperial core itself, but they can (and already are to some extent) helping the imperialized peoples have an alternative. So while the imperial west is shifting more toward fascistic barbarism in order to compensate for collapsing capitalist bubbles, the anti-imperialist regions are shifting toward building an alternative world order, one that is not dependent on that bubble and one which has some sustainability baked in.

I fully expect the empire to be vicious even as it declines, but the will to be vicious alone does not enable its viciousness and every time it overextends and damages its own brittle, unsustainable logistics, it makes its viciousness a little bit harder to successfully carry out in the future. A lot of the harm it’s still able to do probably comes from inertia, but it sucks at maintenance, so that can only last for so long.

AI stuff

I wonder if they’re going to copy deepseek’s technique(s) to make LLMs faster on GPUs, or if they’re only going to build tons of AI datacenters…

I like having AI built into VSCode, I’m worried that once the AI bubble pops all the free tiers I’m freeloading off of will become extremely stingy… a few have already discontinued anything nicer than a 2 week trial.

And if the US companies can’t get their prices lower, DeepSeek will probably eat the low end of the market alive.

Also like, where I work, my boss is monitoring AI usage and will probably fire anyone who is not using it. The jobs market is already bad and there is probably no reasonable chance of finding a job that does not expect you to write code with AI.

The War in Venezuela

I’ve heard they mostly only need to occupy some coastal stuff to get the oil. Big time anxiety over this hypothetical, which could mean the eradication of a socialist state in the west, or worse, it could make the cut as a mission in a future call of duty WW3 game.

Unfortunately the Colombian hippos aren’t close enough to do something really cool.

Taiwan

I expect absolutely nothing to happen here, even if it happens that the US quagmires itself in Venezuela or somehow loses air craft carriers or a lot of fighters/bombers from some kind of unexpected anti-air capabilities.

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