It feels like theres a bunch of things that are simultaneously heating up, but not boiling over.

1.AI bubble

Honestly I’m wondering if this’ll be a “pop” like 2008 or Dotcom, or if it’ll be more like 1929 where you had the intial crash and then the cascading effects across the economy. But in any case, at this point AI is not going to give many returns, and either start ups will run out of investment money or the larger corporations will cut both ai usage and development, leading to a domino effect from the top down.

  1. Venezualan war

Honestly what the US is doing is both the most and least transparent thing. It’s very obvious the US wants to topple Maduro and the Bolivarian government, but how they intend to is kinda beyond me, since [to my knowledge] they haven’t deployed large enough ground forces for a genuine invasion. Honestly if i had to guess, they might be wanting to go for a Libya/Syria strategy of propping up local rebels, then intervening with non-occupational forces. But when or how this’ll happen, I’m not sure.

3.Taiwan Crisis

We haven’t reached the point of another straight crisis yet, but the US has recently passed and introduced more measures in relation to the rogue government [https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1512 and https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3452]. Of course there’s also been the Japanese saber rattling too. Of course these issues have been a thing for a while, but I’m unsure what Japan specifically is getting out of it, and Trump has, as always, been very opaque about the issue.

4.Russia-Europe

The current situation with the SMO seems to be a chicken with its head cut off. It’s walking like it’s alive but there really is no way the situation is going to improve for Europe. But the recent “Russian” drones and technical airspace violations seem to be something that’s trying to reignite tensions. For what? I’m also not sure. A full military intervention seems unlikely, as Europe’s equipment is currently already in Ukrainian hands. A full scale war with Russia [and probably Belarus] would be catastrophic at best and suicidal at worst. If I had to guess, Europe wants to keep pushing austerity and needs nationalist war drums to drown out the noise of german economic collapse and starving British kids.

There’s also the current situation in west Africa [with a military coup in Guinea-Bissau just being reported today] and other things. But really it feels as though the world is stuck, and when something gives, everything else is going to snap to. But idk, I also didn’t get enough sleep last night so maybe I’m just being paranoid

  • Commiejones@lemmygrad.ml
    5·
    13 hours ago

    This is all just personal opinions but I like to think it is based on material reality even if it is optimistic.

    1. The AI bubble will pop and hit like the the 2008 crash on steroids. 1929 won’t happen because the dust bowl was caused by generations of ignorant farmers but that doesn’t mean there wont be bread lines. (there kinda all ready are with 16% of american families with children getting food stamps) usa will use the poverty to increase the size of ICE and the millitary.

    2. I think a war in west Asia will pull Venezuela off the burner before it starts. If it does start I don’t think it will go well or america but the increased manpower from the economic crash could be used in human wave tactics. I’ve heard analysts say that usa really can’t take on Venezuela based on how much power they used in Iraq and Veitnam. America’s airforce is half as big as it was in 2003 and most of the planes are old with only 650 f35s. Venezuelans are prepared for a guerilla war in the best terrain for that kind of war. There may be some collaborators inside Venezuela but there are less than usa expects and they are going to mostly be urban middle/upper class types who won’t pick up a gun.

    3. Taiwan will fizzle. Peaceful reunification is becoming more popular with average Taiwanese people especially younger people. America couldn’t possibly win in the south China sea in their current state and they have no prospects in increasing their chances in the foreseeable future.

    4. europe and the banderites will remain intransigent but they have nothing left to fight with. I think Russia will take Keiv and Odessa. They’ll ransom keiv for a peace deal but keep a garrison there with the rump Ukraine as a DMZ. Russia will agree to not have troops in rump ukraine but retain the right to airstrikes against military targets with joint task force of nato Russian and Chinese inspectors doing analysis of strikes to keep them honest.