It feels like theres a bunch of things that are simultaneously heating up, but not boiling over.
1.AI bubble
Honestly I’m wondering if this’ll be a “pop” like 2008 or Dotcom, or if it’ll be more like 1929 where you had the intial crash and then the cascading effects across the economy. But in any case, at this point AI is not going to give many returns, and either start ups will run out of investment money or the larger corporations will cut both ai usage and development, leading to a domino effect from the top down.
- Venezualan war
Honestly what the US is doing is both the most and least transparent thing. It’s very obvious the US wants to topple Maduro and the Bolivarian government, but how they intend to is kinda beyond me, since [to my knowledge] they haven’t deployed large enough ground forces for a genuine invasion. Honestly if i had to guess, they might be wanting to go for a Libya/Syria strategy of propping up local rebels, then intervening with non-occupational forces. But when or how this’ll happen, I’m not sure.
3.Taiwan Crisis
We haven’t reached the point of another straight crisis yet, but the US has recently passed and introduced more measures in relation to the rogue government [https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1512 and https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3452]. Of course there’s also been the Japanese saber rattling too. Of course these issues have been a thing for a while, but I’m unsure what Japan specifically is getting out of it, and Trump has, as always, been very opaque about the issue.
4.Russia-Europe
The current situation with the SMO seems to be a chicken with its head cut off. It’s walking like it’s alive but there really is no way the situation is going to improve for Europe. But the recent “Russian” drones and technical airspace violations seem to be something that’s trying to reignite tensions. For what? I’m also not sure. A full military intervention seems unlikely, as Europe’s equipment is currently already in Ukrainian hands. A full scale war with Russia [and probably Belarus] would be catastrophic at best and suicidal at worst. If I had to guess, Europe wants to keep pushing austerity and needs nationalist war drums to drown out the noise of german economic collapse and starving British kids.
There’s also the current situation in west Africa [with a military coup in Guinea-Bissau just being reported today] and other things. But really it feels as though the world is stuck, and when something gives, everything else is going to snap to. But idk, I also didn’t get enough sleep last night so maybe I’m just being paranoid
I wonder if they’re going to copy deepseek’s technique(s) to make LLMs faster on GPUs, or if they’re only going to build tons of AI datacenters…
I like having AI built into VSCode, I’m worried that once the AI bubble pops all the free tiers I’m freeloading off of will become extremely stingy… a few have already discontinued anything nicer than a 2 week trial.
And if the US companies can’t get their prices lower, DeepSeek will probably eat the low end of the market alive.
Also like, where I work, my boss is monitoring AI usage and will probably fire anyone who is not using it. The jobs market is already bad and there is probably no reasonable chance of finding a job that does not expect you to write code with AI.
I’ve heard they mostly only need to occupy some coastal stuff to get the oil. Big time anxiety over this hypothetical, which could mean the eradication of a socialist state in the west, or worse, it could make the cut as a mission in a future call of duty WW3 game.
Unfortunately the Colombian hippos aren’t close enough to do something
really cool.
I expect absolutely nothing to happen here, even if it happens that the US quagmires itself in Venezuela or somehow loses air craft carriers or a lot of fighters/bombers from some kind of unexpected anti-air capabilities.
Honestly i live for the day an American aircraft carrier gets sunk. I’ve been dreaming of it ever since the millennium challenge wargames of 2002 indicated it as a possibility.