It feels like theres a bunch of things that are simultaneously heating up, but not boiling over.

1.AI bubble

Honestly I’m wondering if this’ll be a “pop” like 2008 or Dotcom, or if it’ll be more like 1929 where you had the intial crash and then the cascading effects across the economy. But in any case, at this point AI is not going to give many returns, and either start ups will run out of investment money or the larger corporations will cut both ai usage and development, leading to a domino effect from the top down.

  1. Venezualan war

Honestly what the US is doing is both the most and least transparent thing. It’s very obvious the US wants to topple Maduro and the Bolivarian government, but how they intend to is kinda beyond me, since [to my knowledge] they haven’t deployed large enough ground forces for a genuine invasion. Honestly if i had to guess, they might be wanting to go for a Libya/Syria strategy of propping up local rebels, then intervening with non-occupational forces. But when or how this’ll happen, I’m not sure.

3.Taiwan Crisis

We haven’t reached the point of another straight crisis yet, but the US has recently passed and introduced more measures in relation to the rogue government [https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1512 and https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3452]. Of course there’s also been the Japanese saber rattling too. Of course these issues have been a thing for a while, but I’m unsure what Japan specifically is getting out of it, and Trump has, as always, been very opaque about the issue.

4.Russia-Europe

The current situation with the SMO seems to be a chicken with its head cut off. It’s walking like it’s alive but there really is no way the situation is going to improve for Europe. But the recent “Russian” drones and technical airspace violations seem to be something that’s trying to reignite tensions. For what? I’m also not sure. A full military intervention seems unlikely, as Europe’s equipment is currently already in Ukrainian hands. A full scale war with Russia [and probably Belarus] would be catastrophic at best and suicidal at worst. If I had to guess, Europe wants to keep pushing austerity and needs nationalist war drums to drown out the noise of german economic collapse and starving British kids.

There’s also the current situation in west Africa [with a military coup in Guinea-Bissau just being reported today] and other things. But really it feels as though the world is stuck, and when something gives, everything else is going to snap to. But idk, I also didn’t get enough sleep last night so maybe I’m just being paranoid

  • AverageWestoid@lemmygrad.ml
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    edit-2
    19 hours ago
    1. Oh yeah it’s going to pop at some point and, for the west, and well pretty much every other capitalist country, it’s going to be devastating, most people are already on the brink, another crisis on the scale of, or even exceeding, that of 2008 is likely to cause a lot of turmoil (e.g., it will either kill the US outright, or at the very least rapidly speed up it’s dissolution.)

    Now for other countries I think the effects are going to vary alot, china probably won’t be effected to much as the only reason why it was effected by 2008 was due to the decline in consumption in the west, which obviously isn’t as big as an issue as it was before as china pretty heavily diversified it’s export destinations as well as increased consumption internally via increasing their citizens wealth.

    For Russia I would say it probably won’t be as bad as the west but will absolutely effect them, which will likely make Putin’s life a living hell at literally the worst time possible for the Russian Bourgeoise class (currently Russia is experiencing a large scale resurgence in socialism thanks to the SMO as well as increases ties to china making surpressing campaigns, complicated.) which could potentially be a catalyst for a socialist restoration.

    Burggerreich and pals, honestly it depends on how bad it is and how your average westoid is, American is probably the worst in this regard, most of its citizens are already on the brink (something which is pretty notable as most Americans before the great depression and 2008 where relatively well of.) which means that the actual crash itself doesn’t nessercery need to be as bad as the great depression or 2008 to well, utterly implode the United states. Europe is well, it’s varied. Germany and France ain’t in the best positions economically but I think they are far enough away from the blast zone as well as sufficiently insulated to well, not die, TERF island, no, no, it’s fucked.

    Other third world nations would probably vary alot, India relies a lot on foreign investment so will probably be hit hard, same thing with other third world nations which rely a lot on foreign investment for eco omic growth (well, western economic “investment”)

    1. “Dying in the jungle, harvesting up the black gold, dying for profits…” - song by AWOL (as in defected) amerikkkan draftee Samuel Coke, US invasion of Venezuela, 2027.

    Yeah, I don’t really need to tell you how badly this will end for America if they actually do this. basicslly the war is either going to be Vietnam or Another Ukraine, either way both are incredibly shit for the United States.

    1. Eh, to be honest nothings going to happen with this one, again, china and the CPC are more than aware that the buggerreich is currently devouring itself wholesale, so why should the CPC like invade Taiwan now when they can just wait five, ten, maybe even less years till America is either dead or at the very least embroiled in a civil war, don’t make much sense to do it now.

    2. Similar thing here, the SMO is slowly, but inevitably, being won by Russia, and really Europe wont directly intervene less it has to.

    To be honest I think what’s more interesting is what’s going to follow, assuming that Russia only takes the five oblasts they currently control outright (and don’t like, try to push the Ukrainians west of the Dnieper or something) then it’s going to leave the Russians in a interesting geo-political position.

    Basically ever since the Russo-Ukraine war began Russia has seen it’s economic ties shift considerably, with it’s once strong trade ties with the west being effectively obliterated, Russia is forced to rely on exporting it’s goods to eastern markets (more particularly China, Vietnam, and India.) to support it’s heavily export focused economy.

    This in turn has notable political consequences, for one it means that Russia’s main trade partners (excluding India obviously) are socialist, which does have notable implications for Russia domestic political situation.

    Even after three decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, socialist thought and support has maintained a strong presence within Russia despite government crackdowns. This “Socialist Nostalgia” has only continued to persist and grow within Russia as internal material contradictions, in a similar manner to how they spurred dessent against Capitalist thoughts in the west and pretty much everywhere else, continues to empower socialist political movements such as the KPRF.

    While in the 2010s the russian government was able to fairly effectively surpress revanchist socialist thought, the increasing ties of Russia to Socialists states, and more particularly the reliance of Russian Exports on Chinese buyers, has places the Russian Capitalist class in a rather, unfortunate for them, predicament, where there options for surpressing growing socialist appeal becomes rather limited, less they face a soft scale retaliation by their new partners (e.g., China potentially tariffing russian exports, for one.)

    • Conselheiro@lemmygrad.ml
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      ·
      18 hours ago

      For Russia I would say it probably won’t be as bad as the west but will absolutely effect them, which will likely make Putin’s life a living hell at literally the worst time possible for the Russian Bourgeoise class (currently Russia is experiencing a large scale resurgence in socialism thanks to the SMO as well as increases ties to china making surpressing campaigns, complicated.) which could potentially be a catalyst for a socialist restoration

      Genuine question, why would Russia be hurt worse than China? From my lay perspective I’d guess that they’d be even safer, since their economy has been forcefully decoupled from the West already.

      • AverageWestoid@lemmygrad.ml
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        5
        ·
        18 hours ago

        Mostly it’s because Russia lacks the same governmental systems of protection that China has, plus, while Russia has disconnected itself from the West a lot more than it was in like the 2010s, it is still involved in the global economic system (for an example, most Indian oil purchases of russian oil are literally just the Indians buying russian oil, refining it (sometimes) and then exporting it back to the west at markup.