Militarily speaking the US is still a force to be reckoned with
Sure. But so are France, Russia, India, and Pakistan. A lot of the US influence comes from its extensive base network. And yet… America can’t keep the Suez open in the face of some Yemeni rebels with access to a Radio Shack. They’ve bowed out in Afghanistan and Iraq. They’re roughly holding the line in Ukraine by sheer weight of expenditure. Logistically, all very impressive. But its playing ten different chess games at once. Only impressive if you’re not losing them.
I’d say in the future the US is going to do a lot more riding on the EU’s soft power than they’re currently comfortable admitting.
I’m not even sure what the EU looks like in another thirty years. The UK is in steep decline, France is in full sell-out mode, Germany and Italy are making kissy-faces at their fascist wings. The Eastern European states never recovered from the break up of the USSR. Scandinavia is a gas station.
Europe’s chips seem to be stacking up in the Middle East, under a handful of petty dictatorships and theocracies. But the real future power players are looking more and more like the member states of the South Pacific - India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia. Enormous populations, high tech industries, rapidly expanding navies, some of the last pristine wilderness anywhere on earth… These look like the countries which will be leading the world into back end of the 21st century.
Sure. But so are France, Russia, India, and Pakistan. A lot of the US influence comes from its extensive base network. And yet… America can’t keep the Suez open in the face of some Yemeni rebels with access to a Radio Shack. They’ve bowed out in Afghanistan and Iraq. They’re roughly holding the line in Ukraine by sheer weight of expenditure. Logistically, all very impressive. But its playing ten different chess games at once. Only impressive if you’re not losing them.
I’m not even sure what the EU looks like in another thirty years. The UK is in steep decline, France is in full sell-out mode, Germany and Italy are making kissy-faces at their fascist wings. The Eastern European states never recovered from the break up of the USSR. Scandinavia is a gas station.
Europe’s chips seem to be stacking up in the Middle East, under a handful of petty dictatorships and theocracies. But the real future power players are looking more and more like the member states of the South Pacific - India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia. Enormous populations, high tech industries, rapidly expanding navies, some of the last pristine wilderness anywhere on earth… These look like the countries which will be leading the world into back end of the 21st century.