Tesla, which is due to reveal its total sales for 2025 later on Friday, last week published analyst’s estimates suggesting that it had sold around 1.65 million vehicles for the year as a whole.
The US firm has faced a tough year with a mixed reception to new offerings, unease over Musk’s political activities and intensifying competition from Chinese rivals.
This still seems fine… At that rate, electric will start to greatly outnumber ice cars. That has all kinds of knockon effects, for instance, selling fewer ice cars means their replacement parts will be less available, maintenance will get more expensive. Manufacturing these cars will also become more expensive because you’ll lose some economy of scale benefits. So, ice cars get more expensive, while evs get cheaper. Meanwhile, petrol stations get significantly less business from petrol sales, it will become not economical for many stations to continue to maintain all their equipment. Some stations will close down.
The cars will get more expensive, the fuel harder to find, and I’m sure there are other things that will change as well. There will be enough incentives to make the remaining drivers switch over soon enough.
Those are the predictions I found:
Basically 17% ICE cars forever. This is pretty much the share EVs have in EU now and today EVs don’t really struggle with replacement parts or charging infrastructure. ICE cars don’t need as many stations so even if many closes they will be fine.
And I think this prediction is very optimistic. Once you leave the door open everyone will try to get their foot in the door. For example with total ban gas stations would be forced to adapt and roll out chargers but now they can also stall. I can already see it. Gas stations are perfect places to put charges but few of them do it. If they do it’s often in the city, not along highways which is stupid and their chargers are the least reliable. I makes perfect sense: they want to cash in the incentives for building charges but don’t want to actually help EV cars. With the new proposal we will see more of it. They got 90%, now they will try to get 80% or 70%. The entire industry will work to slow down the transition and make more money.
I think that’s a very strange prediction that looks like it basically assumes market share is only influenced by regulations. Gas stations losing 83% of their customers is a huge change with cascading effects, but this chart looks like it assumes combustion engines will just stay popular forever, only bounded by production limited by regulation…
That’s just your guess. When ICE car displays low fuel warning you can still drive for about 60 km and in my experience you can easily reach 2-3 gas stations. Where I live there are 5 gas stations within 2 km radius. It’s typical to have two gas stations on both sides of the highway. When it comes to car charges the GOAL is to have one every 50 km but it’s still not there. When there is a charger it’s only on one side of the road or even couple kilometers off the highway, in some town. Yet we still have about ~16% of electric cars on the roads. Even with 80% less gas stations ICE drivers would still be in a pretty good situation, similar to the situation of EV drivers now. On top of that gas stations double as service stations. People stop there to buy drinks, food, wipers fluid, pump their tiers or wash their car. I never saw w charging stations offer any of that. Gas stations make majority of their profits from their convenience stores and services. So it’s really hard to say what effect losing 80% of cars will have. A lot of gas stations will close, some will transform into service stations with chargers and some will probably stay as they are.