Ok upon rereading, im still utterly baffled by the AI part, but yes, mass producing satellites on the moon and shooting them into Earth orbit or a close sun orbit via a mass driver is pretty likely in the future. We WILL be making satellites that will form the basis of a dyson swarm, and its very unlikely we will make them on Earth as almost anywhere else in the solar system is going to be easier. The moon is an excellent starting point, but in the long term the moon is primarily just going to be a refueling station for deeper space trips. Most of our soace manufacturing and shipping is going to be primarily handled in the asteroid belt, and then in the much further future there will be more people living in the Keiper belt than has ever existed on Earth.
Edit: in case its not obvious, my passion is futurology, this is literally the shit i spend all day reading and researching about every single day. My passion used to be AI but since the creation of LLMs most of the itneresting research has been sidelined.
The issue is power transmission. Wireless transmission has repeatedly been shown to be highly energy intensive and prone to severe loss the further you’re sending it, plus you still have to have a way to pick it up and convert it to electricity at a useful rate on the ground.
Solar irradiance above the atmosphere (i.e., in orbit) is 1360 W/m^2. At ground level, it’s 1120, so a loss of ~18% due to the atmosphere.
If transmission losses plus the massive costs of launch, keeping the panels cool (no conduction/convection in space), and maintenance add up to greater than 18%, it’s more efficient on the ground.
First, the best place for them is GEO. In that orbit, they’re only in the earth’s shadow for small chunks of time throughout the whole year. The extra delta-v to go from LEO to GEO is generally worth it.
Second, never have to worry about cloud cover.
Third, 1120 W/m^2 is an average that changes substantially depending on where and when you’re talking about. The 1360 W/m^2 in GEO is constant.
I’m not so sure that the belt will be our manufacturing base, at least in the beginning. It’s awful far away, and the moon already has a lot of the base resources we need
Yeah def not in the beginning. Itll probably be moon->trojan asteroids-> skimming jupiter & asteroid belt ->outer planets & Keiper belt -> oort cloud
I dont know if humanity would ever get to where people are living and working in the oort cloud, even if you gave us infinite time to do so. I do like the thought of generational ships in deep space though.
Ok upon rereading, im still utterly baffled by the AI part, but yes, mass producing satellites on the moon and shooting them into Earth orbit or a close sun orbit via a mass driver is pretty likely in the future. We WILL be making satellites that will form the basis of a dyson swarm, and its very unlikely we will make them on Earth as almost anywhere else in the solar system is going to be easier. The moon is an excellent starting point, but in the long term the moon is primarily just going to be a refueling station for deeper space trips. Most of our soace manufacturing and shipping is going to be primarily handled in the asteroid belt, and then in the much further future there will be more people living in the Keiper belt than has ever existed on Earth.
Edit: in case its not obvious, my passion is futurology, this is literally the shit i spend all day reading and researching about every single day. My passion used to be AI but since the creation of LLMs most of the itneresting research has been sidelined.
The issue is power transmission. Wireless transmission has repeatedly been shown to be highly energy intensive and prone to severe loss the further you’re sending it, plus you still have to have a way to pick it up and convert it to electricity at a useful rate on the ground.
Solar irradiance above the atmosphere (i.e., in orbit) is 1360 W/m^2. At ground level, it’s 1120, so a loss of ~18% due to the atmosphere.
If transmission losses plus the massive costs of launch, keeping the panels cool (no conduction/convection in space), and maintenance add up to greater than 18%, it’s more efficient on the ground.
It’s a lot more than that.
First, the best place for them is GEO. In that orbit, they’re only in the earth’s shadow for small chunks of time throughout the whole year. The extra delta-v to go from LEO to GEO is generally worth it.
Second, never have to worry about cloud cover.
Third, 1120 W/m^2 is an average that changes substantially depending on where and when you’re talking about. The 1360 W/m^2 in GEO is constant.
The basic practicality of a microwave-based system was demonstrated in 2023, and it does work. However, they are suspiciously mum about efficiency.
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/in-a-first-caltechs-space-solar-power-demonstrator-wirelessly-transmits-power-in-space
I’m not so sure that the belt will be our manufacturing base, at least in the beginning. It’s awful far away, and the moon already has a lot of the base resources we need
Yeah def not in the beginning. Itll probably be moon->trojan asteroids-> skimming jupiter & asteroid belt ->outer planets & Keiper belt -> oort cloud
I dont know if humanity would ever get to where people are living and working in the oort cloud, even if you gave us infinite time to do so. I do like the thought of generational ships in deep space though.