That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that “rule” was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I’m also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of “converting” certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don’t get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal’s discord had about 100k members, and it’s population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that “rule” was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I’m also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of “converting” certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don’t get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal’s discord had about 100k members, and it’s population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march