I do wonder though how many foreign fighters on the Russian side went there out of genuine belief in Russia’s war, as opposed to those who went for money or who were coerced/tricked into joining the Russian army. With the way Russia operates, it makes sense that they would attract those with a self-interested mercenary mindset, that have no regard for the politics of the conflict. Or desperate people who can be easily manipulated. It’s probably also easier to recruit from countries that already have a favourable view of Russia.
This article from last year suggests that it’s largely personal gain that has motivated Cubans to go to Ukraine to fight on the side of Russia. To be honest, I don’t know whether it’s a good or bad thing that people are fighting for personal gain rather than belief in Russia’s nonsensical reasons for invading.
I would say it’s a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.
I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).
To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.
That’s not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their “active reserve” to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their “active reserve” was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn’t call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a “volunteer” only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).
However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for “patriot” reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining “active reserve” will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.
Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump “possibly” helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.
If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.
Yep you’re probably right. It would likely be an even bigger issue for Ukraine if there was more widespread global support for Russia’s cause. If that were the case, they might be able to amass a significant foreign volunteer force to fight against Ukraine.
In my opinion, the relatively small amount of pro-Russian foreign fighters speaks to the weakness of Russia’s argument in favour of the invasion. If it was a genuine crusade to de-nazify Ukraine and free oppressed people, I think there would be a much larger contingent of people going there to fight for Russia.
I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure that would be the case.
Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don’t know (emphasis on I don’t know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).
I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.
Ukraine’s low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.
There is not going to be any uprising in Russia or any change in policy.
Even if putin is somehow removed (which is not going to happen), he will be replaced by someone similar or worse.
The problem is russian society and their near universal support for genocidal imperialism.
Finding excuses for russians, treating them as you want them to be, not as they are, benefits no one (including the russians themselves paradoxically).
I do wonder though how many foreign fighters on the Russian side went there out of genuine belief in Russia’s war, as opposed to those who went for money or who were coerced/tricked into joining the Russian army. With the way Russia operates, it makes sense that they would attract those with a self-interested mercenary mindset, that have no regard for the politics of the conflict. Or desperate people who can be easily manipulated. It’s probably also easier to recruit from countries that already have a favourable view of Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68949298
This article from last year suggests that it’s largely personal gain that has motivated Cubans to go to Ukraine to fight on the side of Russia. To be honest, I don’t know whether it’s a good or bad thing that people are fighting for personal gain rather than belief in Russia’s nonsensical reasons for invading.
I would say it’s a good thing that Russian fighters are doing so for the money, because once the money dries up they will stop showing up.
I believe we are seeing two things recently. The first is a drop of financially motivated fighters from Russia (reasoning: drop in signing bonuses, ex. 3M to 400k in some oblasts). The second is a downward spiral of their economy (civilian industries cutting hours and 40%(?) of their oil refining capacity currently diminished), coupled with the emptying of their soverign fund (originally 150B, now less than 40B(?)).
To me it looks like they are running out of funds and financial motivated fighters.
That’s not to say they will run out of fighters. I believe they recently or are in the process of allowing their “active reserve” to be called up to serve in Ukraine. If I recall correctly, their “active reserve” was 2M personnel. The analysis I read (Institute of War?) was that Russia wouldn’t call them all at once, but do a rolling callup to sustain fighting and potentially release the mobilized soldiers from 2023(?). This would allow them to claim a “volunteer” only force and still have enough fighters while not paying high signup bonuses (potentially).
However, everyone who wanted to volunteer for “patriot” reasons has already done so at this point. They have or in the process of using up all their financially motivated options. Therefore, I expect their remaining “active reserve” will not be motivated and calling them up would increase unrest in Russia.
Will the unrest be enough to topple Putin? No idea. There seems to be quite a few factors pushing against him resently that could cause a coup/revolutionary moment. Gasoline shortage, massive inflation, economic downward spiral, Ukrainian drones being able to hit deep into Russia, Trump “possibly” helping Ukraine, consumer bank run on cash, etc.
If I had to guess, I would say it would happen around New Years time. My understanding is that New Years is a big celebration in Russian culture (equivalent to a combined Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one) and that Russians spend big on that holiday. So, I suspect, that if a popular uprising happens it will happen around then.
Yep you’re probably right. It would likely be an even bigger issue for Ukraine if there was more widespread global support for Russia’s cause. If that were the case, they might be able to amass a significant foreign volunteer force to fight against Ukraine.
In my opinion, the relatively small amount of pro-Russian foreign fighters speaks to the weakness of Russia’s argument in favour of the invasion. If it was a genuine crusade to de-nazify Ukraine and free oppressed people, I think there would be a much larger contingent of people going there to fight for Russia.
I see what you’re saying, but I’m not sure that would be the case.
Ukraine is fighting a defensive war against an oppressive invading country and I don’t know (emphasis on I don’t know) that they have more foreign fighters than Russia (mostly North Korea, but also Cuba, Africa, etc.).
I do know Ukraine has some foreign legions(?) with a significant number of Columbians and Iraq/Afghanistan war veterans from multiple countries, along with anti-Putin Russians and Belarusian forces.
Ukraine’s low numbers (my understanding of their numbers) could be due to financial and logistical (training and supplies/equipment) constraints though.
There is not going to be any uprising in Russia or any change in policy.
Even if putin is somehow removed (which is not going to happen), he will be replaced by someone similar or worse.
The problem is russian society and their near universal support for genocidal imperialism.
Finding excuses for russians, treating them as you want them to be, not as they are, benefits no one (including the russians themselves paradoxically).