

I think you’re correct at a high level, but there is also the medium-term and long-term impact of not honouring treaties which is less predictable and makes the calculation around not honouring a treaty less straightforward (even if in the immediate sense the drawbacks are minimal).
WW1/WW2 also had their fair of treaty violations. Sudetenland annexation is an early example. Nazi Germany breaking the Molotov–Ribbentrop to split up Europe with the russians is perhaps a better known example. Italy was also supposed to join the central power in WW1 as per their treaty examples.
While long term impacts are always difficult to quantify by definition, they do have impact on how people think (especially people in power).


















Not an American (although I have lived there for several years and travelled extensively), it doesn’t matter if the Democrats win.
I say this as someone who always votes and has done tactical voting many times.
The US centre right is incapable of addressing corruption and criminality, not only because the party apparatus is itself corrupt, but because most Americans centre right voters are simply too well off to risk rocking the boat. They’ll keep trying to avoid addressing corruption until it’s too late.
The corruption of the centre right is a symptom, with the cause being American society (specifically a large portion of centre right voters).
This is not doomerism in the least. In any country/context, the first step to overcoming immense odds is recognizing what the problem is. If you don’t take the first step, you’ll definitely never get to your goal.
It is not my intention to be petty and have a laugh. Until centre right public totally rejects comical American-style polemics about alleged commitment to “free speech” and “free markets”, they will never address corruption and debasement of their institutions.
And yet Obama and other senior centre right figures are still parroting the same shallow, tedious copytext that they’ve been pitching for the last years.