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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
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Step one:
Don’t tell the Americans.
I mean, they didn’t even tell their European allies. This was clearly something they were able to to alone, and for strategic and political reasons, needed to do fully on their own. Kudos to them! 👍
Amazing how silent the media is on this. The most I’ve heard on mainstream media was on NPR this morning, and even they far under-sold how important this is. They crippled the bear’s air force. They can not recover this damage. This is a turning point in the war.
It’s not exactly that.
I mean, they greatly diminished the strategic bombing fleet, probably did billions in damage (assessments still coming in), and have caused logistical snarls in the country as security tightens.
But this won’t end the war, it will only reduce the number of missile trucks they fly, which were already limited by the rate of missile production. It’s a long term hobbling of russia, but it doesn’t take them out. China and the US were the big winners here on the nuclear playing field.
A big, quiet thing not being discussed was 2 trains going down in bridge collapses in russia recently. Logistical bites like that add up.
The war can continue a long time, slowly grinding down both countries. Hopefully strikes like this will remind russia they cannot win, only not lose as badly.
It’s more than just losing planes.
It’s logistical. There are already video after video of russian trucks being carefully searched by hand to prevent this happening again.
It’s also moral. The russian people have always considered the “inland” areas as perfectly safe. This is a huge blow to that idea.
It’s also more of a strain on the planes. these planes are 50 years old, and have a limited remaining lifespan. Wear and tear can be spread out across the fleet, and if your fleet is reduced in size (and these were all the “good” planes, since they were sitting fueled on the tarmac) you need to put more hours on a smaller number of planes, meaning they’ll wear out faster.
And it might be strategic. Russia was keeping planes fueled and ready, so they could take off any time radar detected incoming missiles or long-range drones (which happened a LOT in the early times of the war). This is showing Russia that that simply leaves your planes more vulnerable to sneak attacks like this.
But at least this makes it clear to the siloviki that this war is not doing them any favours as a wannabe superpower, even if they have endless mobiks to sacrifice
But this won’t end the war
This is the kind of thing you see at the end of a war, nuclear/carpet bombers are a big PR win but they also seem like the most logical card to discard to save face as part of a descalation.
It points to me towards a possible end to the war on the horizon.
Unlikely. Now putin will be looking to best that. It will be lazily planned and will target civilians and civilian infrastructure. You almost make it sound like putin sacrificed these planes as an olive branch or something. Russia is edging up on 1 mill in personnel losses. They’ve lost a majority of their usable Soviet inheritance of tanks. They’re not going to stop over some old bombers, no matter how significant.
Now putin will be looking to best that
Why?
All wars require context, and the shift you have seen is Ukraine developed a decisive enough advantage that interests tangential but intersecting to the war in Ukraine realize it.
The decisive advantage is domestic production of self propelled 155mm artillery in Ukraine.
You almost make it sound like putin sacrificed these planes as an olive branch or something.
No, you have this backwards, this is how a more powerful enemy beats you because it allows an opening for the loser to turn to the crowd and make a bunch of noise and get everyone riled up while they know from their strategic military brain that well those bombers were nice launch platforms for loitering with BVR weapons or killing civilians en masse (turns out this is real bad and we shouldn’t try to drop as many bombs on people as you can) but they aren’t critical elements of a military that if were crippled would make a leader trying to exit a war look weak to rivals.
Anybody in Russia who understands modern warfare will understand that while those bombers were useful and large bomber platforms to launch drones will absolutely be a realm of weapons development, that even in that future war case there are already massive freight airliners being produced all of the world by aircraft companies that will work pretty much as good. This isn’t the same thing as knocking out SUPER critical military infrastructure that places a losing enemy leader in a position where they might act existentially vs. keep seeing the tactical benefit of delaying and retreating instead of going on the offensive.
This is basic Klingon anti-war philosophy/theory, you gotta educate yourself on this stuff.
That’s your problem, there. The leader has no interest in ending the war. None. He would sacrifice every man in that country for his glory.
Everybody feels that way at least to a degree when losing, consider that a truly frightening enemy will be patient with you through that process because every moment is a choice.
While this is an amazing operation, and has definitely permanently crippled the russian strategic air force, it’s probably not a turning point.
Russia needs 1-2 of these planes operational to deliver its strike packages (at least the ones we’ve seen until now). That likely means 4-6 planes total to account for down-time.
This war will end when russia runs out of heavy equipment (we’re getting closer every day), burns through its forces even faster than now (has been accelerating the past years due to shortages of armour), sees further drops in recruitment (it is dropping due to massive casualty rates), and unarmored russians on the frontline without heavy weapons begin to break and flee under Ukrainian assaults.
Ukraine is working very hard to preserve its forces and materiel, while russia is burning through both at an amazingly unsustainable rate. European military production is increasing by the day, so sooner or later the scales will tip in Ukraines favour, and when they do, the russians won’t have much to fight back with.
Wow. What an awesome victory! Congratulations to everyone involved!
“One lorry driver interviewed by Russian state outlet Ria Novosti said he and other drivers tried to knock down drones flying out of a lorry with rocks.”
They really use civilians and rocks for military purposes in this war. It’s fascinating to think about.
