

It depends on how many of the gerrymandered districts are packed (large Democratic majorities) and how many are cracked (Democratic population centers are split up into multiple districts with small-ish Republican majorities). Cracked districts can be won if Democrats turn out in record numbers. Packed districts just produce more lopsided majorities in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Of course, this gerrymander is only one of the voter suppression tactics that Texas Republicans will use to lower Democratic turnout.
First thing that crossed my mind, too.