i never questioned it hitting, I was making some educated guesses about when can we expect that, previous post (81) got about 240 votes in 20ish hours, so i was expecting 243 to also take about same time. But there are some more things, people lose interest, all things have somewhat bell shaped curve, more like weighted bell shape, something like (polynomial)*(exponential with negative power), so most things eventually decay.
from this I was making guesses, like 243 onwards, targets would not be met in a day, and for next tripling we get more into 3-4 day territory (assuming 691 users has about 200 new users), and by next cycle, we are limited (practically) by subscribers in this lemmy instance (1.16k is about half 2.2k) if we have 2 more cycles, we are practically limited by number of mathematically inclined people on lemmy, then we see it practically die
I happen to pass you on this bench and I must to disagree. Even if you have a sophisticated model it just doesn’t hold on to empirical evidence. This post: https://lemmy.world/post/16111988 Has 1346 upvotes and is basically the same concept but in even bigger community.
There is no precedent that a meme of this kind can hit 2187 upvotes.
This post is well on its way to hitting 243 upvotes, but I suspect that 729 will be difficult to reach.
i never questioned it hitting, I was making some educated guesses about when can we expect that, previous post (81) got about 240 votes in 20ish hours, so i was expecting 243 to also take about same time. But there are some more things, people lose interest, all things have somewhat bell shaped curve, more like weighted bell shape, something like (polynomial)*(exponential with negative power), so most things eventually decay.
And the stats that I see in the sidebar
691 users / day 1.82K users / week 1.82K users / month 2.98K users / 6 months 1.16K subscribers 75 Posts 564 Commentsfrom this I was making guesses, like 243 onwards, targets would not be met in a day, and for next tripling we get more into 3-4 day territory (assuming 691 users has about 200 new users), and by next cycle, we are limited (practically) by subscribers in this lemmy instance (1.16k is about half 2.2k) if we have 2 more cycles, we are practically limited by number of mathematically inclined people on lemmy, then we see it practically die
A sad ending
well I should eat my words, it completed in less than 9 hours
I happen to pass you on this bench and I must to disagree. Even if you have a sophisticated model it just doesn’t hold on to empirical evidence. This post: https://lemmy.world/post/16111988 Has 1346 upvotes and is basically the same concept but in even bigger community. There is no precedent that a meme of this kind can hit 2187 upvotes.
There will be no more than one next cycle.