• mosiacmango@lemm.ee
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    3 months ago

    So yes, you think gamblers decide elections.

    I think I asked you this last time you brought this up and you didn’t reply. What were Biden’s odds of winning in 2020 on these same websites at 3 months out?

    • ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works
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      3 months ago

      Obviously gamblers don’t decide elections but they do a pretty good job predicting election outcomes.

      I don’t think I’m the same guy you had that discussion with (or if I am, I have no memory of it). Anyway, Polymarket (which I trust more) appears to have no history for resolved markets (as far as I can tell) and PredictIt (which is currently more optimistic about Harris than Polymarket) only shows 9/20/20 at the earliest (at which time it was Biden 57, Trump 46, Harris 4). I’m not sure what you’re getting at with this question.

      Note: Yes, PredictIt didn’t add up to 100%. In theory that means you could have made money off of it risk-free but in practice it has a lot of overhead which prevents it from being an efficient market.