Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s statehood could suffer an “irreparable blow” if the pattern of the war continued, and Russia would never be forced to abandon the gains it had made. Putin made his televised comments a day after Switzerland agreed to host a global summit at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Putin dismissed “so-called peace formulas” being discussed in the West and Ukraine and what he called the “prohibitive demands” they entailed.
“Well, if they don’t want (to negotiate), then don’t!” he said.
This whole comment is predicated on Russians having some kind of defender’s home field advantage which itself is a false premise and there goes the whole argument. There are no Russian supply lines in the eastern territories out of striking distance of Ukrainian combined forces, which is why Putin has returned to terror bombing civilian populations regularly. He needs to create political leverage for negotiations before his occupiers siege themselves to death.
Just the opposite? Ukrainians have the home field advantage, of course, and they are reinforcing the west as well. The surovikin line in the southeast seems like a royal pain still and the Russians are quite fortified there. The longer Russians occupy a territory, the longer they have to build up their own defenses. (That creates a “home field advantage” of sorts.)
I also eluded to Ukrainians having the intelligence and accuracy advantages which aligns with what you are saying about destroyed supply lines, especially around Avdiivka. There have been many videos of armor getting destroyed way in advance of any possible attack in that area and Avdiivka still stands as a result.
No matter how fortified their position is, they can’t get fresh water in and ultimately it’s not their home field. Crimea is Ukrainian and always will be. In this context, Aviidka is a red herring. Putin lost at conquest and is engaged in pure terrorism now.