Ok so here’s the rules
- I just bet on red every time
- I start with 1 dollar
- every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
- every time I win I restart
I’m going to simulate 10 games
- Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
- Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36
In this simulation I’m losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I’m walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.
Another example. Let’s pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.
- 1 lose
- 3 lose
- 9 lose
- 27 lose
- 81 lose
- 243 lose
- 729 lose
- 2187 lose
- 6561 lose
- 19683 lose
- 59049 win $118098
$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won
Walk out with roughly $29525.
I get most casinos won’t let you be that high but it’s a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.
So help me out here, what am I missing?
This is the Martingale system, it will 100% work if you have infinite money and can bet infinite amounts.
It won’t work on any table that has a 0 and/or 00. The reason those green numbers exist is to give the house an edge over high rollers who can sustain a martingale strategy.
It works even with 0 and 00 - but only if you have infinite money and there is no limit to bets. So long as there is finite money, or limited bets you will - statistically - hit a run of losses that exceeds your money.
Maximum bets and the fact that money is limited is what breaks this, once you hit the maximum bet odds are slightly against you winning on that next turn because of the 0 and 00; and so eventually you will lose as you hit running up to the max bet and then lose on that turn.
Me: “bets 1 infinity dollars”
Loses
Me: “bets 3 infinities of dollars”
I thought this was a pretty good in-depth explanation of the infinite case and the finite case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTsRGQj6VT4
You can’t have an infinite amount since past a certain mass it will collapse onto itself and create a black hole. (or other practical limits) So eventually you lose anyway.