Afganistan war was deeply unpopular, and there were a lot more people involved and dead then reported, also it wasn’t exactly war that brought it down, just one of the many factors. Current war has popular support.
And the amount of dead in the war the Russia is waging now is dramatically underreported inside the Russia. The same thing :)
But yeah, the amount of real deaths (that we know nowadays, not what USSR told back then) in Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan was 25 000 Soviets plus 60 000 Afghans on the side of USSR.
About 15 times as many Russians have died in this war in 4 years as that one back then in 10 years. And the Russia is half the size now compared to USSR back then.
Afghan war was not deeply unpopular during its first 2 or 3 years. On its 10th year it was. Extremely. And now 75 times as many (in proportion) Russians are dying per decade as back then.
There’s no way the Russian populace will put up with that if they need to move to conscription.
The Afghan war was too much for them. This is is as big as 75 Afghan wars at once.
The Russia will probably not fall, but they will 100% surely lose their ability to fight a large-scale war such as this.
Short term? If they ‘lose’ as in freeze the war not on their maximalist terms, yes. If they will get full ukranian capitulation (as it is being forced right now) they will go for another run in 5 years at best.
Afganistan war was deeply unpopular, and there were a lot more people involved and dead then reported, also it wasn’t exactly war that brought it down, just one of the many factors. Current war has popular support.
@nesc
Yes.
And the amount of dead in the war the Russia is waging now is dramatically underreported inside the Russia. The same thing :)
But yeah, the amount of real deaths (that we know nowadays, not what USSR told back then) in Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan was 25 000 Soviets plus 60 000 Afghans on the side of USSR.
About 15 times as many Russians have died in this war in 4 years as that one back then in 10 years. And the Russia is half the size now compared to USSR back then.
@nesc
Afghan war was not deeply unpopular during its first 2 or 3 years. On its 10th year it was. Extremely. And now 75 times as many (in proportion) Russians are dying per decade as back then.
There’s no way the Russian populace will put up with that if they need to move to conscription.
The Afghan war was too much for them. This is is as big as 75 Afghan wars at once.
The Russia will probably not fall, but they will 100% surely lose their ability to fight a large-scale war such as this.
Short term? If they ‘lose’ as in freeze the war not on their maximalist terms, yes. If they will get full ukranian capitulation (as it is being forced right now) they will go for another run in 5 years at best.
@nesc
Sorry, I do not understand what you are referring to. “Yes” to what?
Your point about popular uprising.