cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/41667815

Unpaywalled

[When Spain’s King Felipe visits China] Madrid will describe it as a gesture of goodwill and opportunity. In reality, it is a calculated gamble that may cost Spain and Europe far more than it gains. Behind the ceremonial smiles lies a strategic miscalculation, engaging Beijing on Beijing’s terms at a time when the European Union is struggling to build a coherent position on China.

…

Spain’s enthusiasm for Chinese capital also reveals a worrying short-sightedness. Madrid faces a large trade deficit with China and believes new projects can offset it. In practice, they seldom do. Chinese investors import their own supply chains, labour, and technology. They create limited local value while drawing European know-how into Chinese networks. Spain risks seeing its renewable energy and manufacturing sectors absorbed into Beijing’s wider strategic designs, leaving it exposed if relations sour or global trade tensions rise.

…

When an EU member breaks ranks, it weakens the credibility of that approach and gives China a wedge to exploit divisions inside the bloc. This fragmentation is exactly what Chinese diplomacy aims for. Every bilateral agreement, every royal handshake, chips away at Europe’s collective leverage.

…

If Spain chooses to play Beijing’s game, it may soon discover that the price of Chinese goodwill is far higher than it expected.

…