None of this, however, was inevitable. The result of these elections was not merely a “thermostatic” backlash to the president. First, because the swings were larger than on average (16 points in VA since 2021, e.g.; 9 versus 2024). And second, because of the changing issue landscape powering Democrats’ victory. Voters said they punished Republicans for Trump’s policies on the economy, health care, and immigration. More said they were voting against him than voting for either party’s nominees for governor, according to the exits.

Instead, the best explanation for 2025 is that voters didn’t know what they were getting with Trump 2.0 last November, but now they do — and they don’t like it.

The following analysis of results and the exit polls explores seven stories hiding in the Democrats’ rosy performance. Charts of results show the scale of the Democratic victories. The exits show that voters prioritized affordability and the economy, and acted on their near-historic disapproval of the president. That combination powered wins across key geographies and demographic groups, blunting GOP efforts to fight on immigration, transgender kids, and crime. In Virginia and New Jersey, “economy‑first” voters sided with the Democratic gubernatorial candidates by a 65-35 margin — a sharp reversal from 2024, when economy‑focused voters broke roughly 80–20 for Trump.

Oh, and I’ll take a deeper look at the polls, which erred by about the same amount this year as they did in 2024, but in the opposite direction.