Kessler Syndrome at low earth orbit has always been a stupid argument since it’s a self-correcting problem.
Sure it’s self correcting, but I could see it still being a problem.
Like let’s say between the 50 thousand predicted satellites we get a full blown Kessler Syndrome going in low Earth orbit. Sure most of the debris would burn up sooner than the satellites, being light and having (proportionally) more surface area. However some of it is gonna get kicked into elliptical orbits causing the debris to interact with the atmosphere less for a lot of it’s orbit. It seems to me that if a LEO Kessler occurred it could make any launches much riskier for years while we wait for the debris to burn up. Not the end of the world to be sure, but rather inconvenient.
Indeed, the situation would be a problem for years, but really that’s it. It’s a somewhat light punishment for an absolutely crazy amount of activity in LEO.
Obviously if we had a similar issue in Geostationary orbit, that could permanently stunt humanity’s space activities.
The situation would be a problem for years in LEO only … until a launch destined for beyond LEO gets hit by a piece of Kaptain Ketamine’s debris at just the wrong time and is turned into an expanding ball of wreckage on a trajectory for far higher.
Then suddenly the Ketamine Syndrome expands to full-blown Kessler Syndrome.
Sure it’s self correcting, but I could see it still being a problem.
Like let’s say between the 50 thousand predicted satellites we get a full blown Kessler Syndrome going in low Earth orbit. Sure most of the debris would burn up sooner than the satellites, being light and having (proportionally) more surface area. However some of it is gonna get kicked into elliptical orbits causing the debris to interact with the atmosphere less for a lot of it’s orbit. It seems to me that if a LEO Kessler occurred it could make any launches much riskier for years while we wait for the debris to burn up. Not the end of the world to be sure, but rather inconvenient.
Indeed, the situation would be a problem for years, but really that’s it. It’s a somewhat light punishment for an absolutely crazy amount of activity in LEO.
Obviously if we had a similar issue in Geostationary orbit, that could permanently stunt humanity’s space activities.
The situation would be a problem for years in LEO only … until a launch destined for beyond LEO gets hit by a piece of Kaptain Ketamine’s debris at just the wrong time and is turned into an expanding ball of wreckage on a trajectory for far higher.
Then suddenly the Ketamine Syndrome expands to full-blown Kessler Syndrome.
Oopsie.