Government shutdowns can be political earthquakes that paralyze Washington, DC. But for the economy, shutdowns are often barely a blip.
Whatever economic damage occurs during that time tends to be limited and quickly fixed. Even the last government shutdown – the record-long 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 – had few long-lasting impacts on the US economy and financial markets.
That could very well be the case again this time around, especially if the looming shutdown proves to be brief. Yet there are reasons this episode could be different – and not in a good way.
The US economy in 2025 looks more vulnerable than during past budget fights. The job market is stumbling, and the Trump administration is threatening even more federal layoffs. A government shutdown would just add more chaos and uncertainty, at a time when there is already plenty of both.
He’s gonna do it either way. But the true danger is perception. Both sides will try to convince the public which side is at fault. Democrats will have the harder argument.
If Democrats have the harder argument, they have only themselves to blame. Every hard fact in this fight is in their favor. The Republicans could end the filibuster and keep the government open with only Republican votes - it would only take a few minutes. They just don’t want to. Republicans could have a temporary shutdown with no layoffs, like all the other shutdowns we’ve had. They just don’t want to. Republicans could negotiate to win Democrat votes instead of trying to browbeat Democrats into voting for a purely Republican bill. They just don’t want to.
I mean, last time Democrats negotiated, got some concessions, and then Trump immediately rescinded that money after the bill had passed. Why the fuck would Democrats negotiate ever again?
A Schumer never really cares or learns.
You underestimate how dumb the overall population is, though. They will see a government shut down that was initiated by democrats and only the democrats can stop.
The democrat will need to convince people that the shutdown is necessary to reign in Trump’s power. And any pain they feel is the fault of Trump and the republicans not negotiating.
I heard somewhere that the party initiating the shutdown is usually the one viewed the most negatively in the end.
My point is that it’s not Democrats initiating this shutdown. I don’t think the reason the perception is otherwise is because of the population being dumb, I think it’s the Democrats’ own poor messaging. Well, maybe a little of both.
It’s absurdity to think a shutdown isn’t the Republicans’ fault while they completely control the government.
The bill requires 60 votes. Meaning the democrats are required in order for it to pass. If 100% of republicans vote to pass and 100% of democrats vote to fail, then it is undeniably the Democrats initiating the shutdown. There’s no way around this fact.
From this perspective, Democrats have to do more work to prove why the shutdown was necessary. Historically, it is the party initiating the shutdown that gets more blame for the pain that comes from the shutdown.
When people are feeling pain as a result of the government shutdown, Republicans will say it is Democrats at fault for this blame. All they have to do is support the funding bill and the pain is gone.
Democrats have to say it is Republican’s fault for not negotiating. This is a much tougher argument to make, especially the further into the shutdown we get.
And last thing to consider, Republicans likely want the government shutdown. It would probably give more freedom for Trump to behave as an authoritarian.
All things must be considered. I don’t think most people in Lemmy will fairly consider the tough decision Democrats have to make.
Bullshit. Democrats have no obligation to vote for a bill they had no say in. If Republicans want Democrat votes, they negotiate. If Republicans want to pass it with no Democrat votes, they do away with the filibuster. They want to keep the filibuster but have it be a tool that only Republicans get to use.
Danc is trying out the “if you would just consent, this wouldn’t be rape so it’s really your fault” approach.
Danc never said it was anybody’s fault. There’s going to be a court of public opinion to determine “fault”, and the Lemmy echo chamber will likely have no representatives.
This is such a silly analogy. Do better next time.
You and I can agree on that, but does the majority of the population agree with us?
As I said from the very beginning, this is an issue of public perception.
Lemmy tends to be an echo chamber for liberals. So it is easy to call bullshit and make it sound SO simple what the Democratic Party should do. But Democratic leaders need to deal with a much larger and more varied population. The same population of people that gave Trump a 2nd term. It is not as simple as you say.
Well, you presented it being the Democrats’ fault as a fact, my dude.
It sounds like we generally agree, I’m just saying the Democrats seem to be totally be phoning in on messaging, when the facts are objectively in their favor.
“Fault” implies judgement. I was making no judgement. But it is a fact that democrats are in control of if we shut down or not. It’s for the public to decide who is at fault.
You’re right that Democrats aren’t great when it comes to messaging, but liberals are also much harder to satisfy than conservatives. Which means the leadership needs to walk a much tighter line and do things that aren’t popular with some of the party.
Schumer got a lot of hate on here for not shutting the government down in March, but if you look at public perception, Trump’s approval rating dropped by 10% in the month that followed. If Democrats shut the government down, who knows how the public would have reacted.
I’d argue that Schumer made the right decision last time, and maybe we need to give him some credit here as well. I know that’s an unpopular opinion among other liberals, but I am mostly concern that Democrats take back some sort of control in 2026. And they won’t do it with a fractured base.