On Thursday afternoon, Justice Carmen Lúcia voted in favor of the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Now, Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) is on the verge of issuing a historic ruling.

The judge’s vote is the third in favor of the conviction, and her decision achieves the simple majority necessary for the five-member court to resolve the dispute. Justice Cristiano Zanin 's vote remains pending before issuing a ruling and finally determining the irrevocable conviction, in a ruling that represents a turning point in the fight against authoritarianism in South America’s largest democracy.

The sentence will find Bolsonaro guilty of attempting to overthrow the democratic rule of law and of leading a criminal organization to remain in power after his electoral defeat in 2022.

Justice Carmen Lúcia Antunes Rocha , the second woman in history to sit on the Supreme Court, began her vote with a forceful denunciation of the “coup practices” orchestrated by Bolsonaro’s supporters since 2021.

That year, precisely, coincided with the restoration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s political rights, an event that, according to his account, triggered a series of illegal maneuvers orchestrated from the Planalto Palace upon learning that Bolsonaro would lose the 2022 elections.

A founding vote for Brazilian democracy

Lúcia’s meticulous and well-founded opinion directly contradicts the dissenting opinion of Justice Luiz Fux, who on Wednesday advocated for the full acquittal of Bolsonaro and five of his allies, arguing that the principle of legality was strictly applied. Fux argued that “no one can be punished simply because they deserve punishment according to our moral convictions,” in a speech that lasted more than fourteen hours.

• Thousands of protesters demanded the arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro last Sunday and expressed their rejection of US threats to intervene in the Latin American country if the former president was convicted. Photo: EFE

However, Minister Carmen Lúcia, supporting the position of the case rapporteur, Alexandre de Moraes, and Minister Flávio Dino, presented a narrative of the events that, in her opinion, clearly constitute the crimes of abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d’état, criminal organization, damage to protected property, and aggravated damage.

Their vote not only focuses on the violent acts of January 8, 2023, but draws a continuous line connecting anti-democratic rhetoric, clandestine meetings with senior military commanders, and the drafting of decrees to interfere in the electoral process.

With his vote, the balance is definitely tipped toward conviction. The formation of a majority of three votes (Moraes, Dino, and Lúcia) to one (Fux) makes it mathematically impossible for Bolsonaro to escape conviction , regardless of the vote of the last minister to deliberate, Cristiano Zanin.

The charges and possible consequences

Bolsonaro and his seven co-defendants—including his former chief of staff Walter Braga Netto and his former aide Mauro Cid —face combined sentences that could exceed 40 years in prison.

The Attorney General’s Office (FGR) requested a specific aggravating factor for the former president, considering him the “head” of the alleged criminal organization whose objective was to prevent President Lula from taking office.

On Friday, September 12, once the final result is announced , investigating judge Alexandre de Moraes is expected to propose specific sentences for each of the accused.