Whilst I don’t agree with the other guy’s accusation of socdems, I can’t deny that the geographic position plays a big role in determining whether a revolution will succeed. Vietnamese are proud of our achievement in defeating empires, but we also acknowledge the roles of our neighbors and comrades in logistics and assistants. We also look at North Korea and ask “Why couldn’t they reunify the country like we did?”. The common answer most of us think is that Korea, being a peninsula, has not supply line afforded to them like Laos and Cambodia afforded to us. Venezuela is in an even direr situation than North Korea, for there is no superpower allies in their close proximity.
Venezuela is in an even direr situation than North Korea, for there is no superpower allies in their close proximity.
You are completely right that the lack of proximity to superpower allies is a big difference with Vietnam. However, this is also a well known concern for the current backers of Venezuela(Iran, Russia and China). Now, I will mix some speculation here with what it is already confirmed.
Confirmed data:
<Confirmed> Russia has helped Venezuela in its military industrialization. One example of this is the new Kalashnikov factory completed in Venezuela: “The first stage of the cartridge enterprise for Kalashnikov rifles in Venezuela has four modern lines. Two of them produce cartridges with steel core bullets, and another two—tracer and blank cartridges,” explained Rostec Executive Director Oleg Yevtushenko. “Other production facilities have to be launched shortly to ensure a full cycle of production of cartridges and Kalashnikov rifles in the territory of Venezuela for the national army, police, and other law enforcers.”
<Confirmed> China sells plenty of military gear and equipment to Venezuela. Some of it is shown in this year’s military parade in Venezuela -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BROtRPh_L-k
The speculation here is that this is not the only stuff that there is available. It is highly likely that there are more stuff being hidden but with this we have confirmed that Venezuela has the essential means of production to defend their country from invasions. The invasion is something that they had in their mind since Chavez and I am pretty sure that our Venezuelan comrades have slowly but surely prepared for it. With every hit/treason/coup attempt, they slowly shaved off the bourgeois elements within the army, politicians and the institutions powers while growing the commune system. This last fact helped them grow a loyal army that openly say that they are socialist.
Also, this is from the parade: “Humanist and SOCIALIST”
Nice, good to know all this info. However, I hope they use that new military tech as means of deterrence. We don’t want Venezuela to turn into a wasteland/battlefield like Ukraine has.
Edit: Petro’s and Lula’s position becomes very important right now because we don’t want to see Brazil and Colombia as open flanks in Venezuela’s defense.
The Colombian side, which is one that it is highly likely to be exploited, is one of the fronts that the Venezuelan gov’t is already preparing for because lots of material support are coming from that side such as the recent failed terrorist attempt to the Soviet memorial monument in Caracas. Also, Colombia is currently occupied by the US throughout their territory so they lack sovereignty to actually oppose it.
Beside Colombia, two (still speculation but highly likely) fronts are the Guyana Essequibo and Trinidad y Tobago. This article from Mision Verdad explores the other two:
I don’t know, Brazilian army is almost an extension of the US army. Brazilian intelligence apparatus depends a lot on US intelligence apparatus (such as use of US satellites and more recently, Starlink). I have no doubt the Brazilian army will at least provide intelligence for the US, and would not be surprised if they provide passage to US troops or far-right guerillas (there are many in Colombia). Lula would have to politicize the population a lot against US interests to prevent Brazil from being used by them.
So yes, I am really concerned for Venezuela. They are, at this point, basically surrounded. The hope would be if FARC groups from Colombia (and a few Brazilian Maoist guerrillas) would join Venezuela’s side.
We don’t want Venezuela to turn into a wasteland/battlefield like Ukraine has.
That’s not going to happen unless the US finds a proxy willing to sacrifice itself for them like Ukraine has done. The US is far too casualty averse to directly engage in that kind of conflict themselves.
Guyana has a grand total of around 4,000 soldiers. Venezuela has at least 300,000. And i don’t even need to mention the disparity in their military inventories, but you can imagine.
No, the only viable proxy in that region is Colombia, and that would require regime change. And Colombia has its own internal instabilities that they need to keep in check, and getting involved in a Ukraine-type conflict would destabilize and undo everything they’ve worked for the past decades to achieve.
I don’t. Vietnam had safe supply route through China, while Venezuela has none. And Vietnam was led by hardened communists, not reformist socdems.
It will be great if you stopped looking down on our Venezuelan comrades and actually investigate what is happening there.
Whilst I don’t agree with the other guy’s accusation of socdems, I can’t deny that the geographic position plays a big role in determining whether a revolution will succeed. Vietnamese are proud of our achievement in defeating empires, but we also acknowledge the roles of our neighbors and comrades in logistics and assistants. We also look at North Korea and ask “Why couldn’t they reunify the country like we did?”. The common answer most of us think is that Korea, being a peninsula, has not supply line afforded to them like Laos and Cambodia afforded to us. Venezuela is in an even direr situation than North Korea, for there is no superpower allies in their close proximity.
You are completely right that the lack of proximity to superpower allies is a big difference with Vietnam. However, this is also a well known concern for the current backers of Venezuela(Iran, Russia and China). Now, I will mix some speculation here with what it is already confirmed.
Confirmed data:
<Confirmed> Russia has helped Venezuela in its military industrialization. One example of this is the new Kalashnikov factory completed in Venezuela: “The first stage of the cartridge enterprise for Kalashnikov rifles in Venezuela has four modern lines. Two of them produce cartridges with steel core bullets, and another two—tracer and blank cartridges,” explained Rostec Executive Director Oleg Yevtushenko. “Other production facilities have to be launched shortly to ensure a full cycle of production of cartridges and Kalashnikov rifles in the territory of Venezuela for the national army, police, and other law enforcers.”
<Confirmed> Iran: From Tehran to Caracas: The alliance that turned Venezuela into a drone powerhouse
<Confirmed> China sells plenty of military gear and equipment to Venezuela. Some of it is shown in this year’s military parade in Venezuela -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BROtRPh_L-k
The speculation here is that this is not the only stuff that there is available. It is highly likely that there are more stuff being hidden but with this we have confirmed that Venezuela has the essential means of production to defend their country from invasions. The invasion is something that they had in their mind since Chavez and I am pretty sure that our Venezuelan comrades have slowly but surely prepared for it. With every hit/treason/coup attempt, they slowly shaved off the bourgeois elements within the army, politicians and the institutions powers while growing the commune system. This last fact helped them grow a loyal army that openly say that they are socialist.
Also, this is from the parade: “Humanist and SOCIALIST”
Nice, good to know all this info. However, I hope they use that new military tech as means of deterrence. We don’t want Venezuela to turn into a wasteland/battlefield like Ukraine has.
Edit: Petro’s and Lula’s position becomes very important right now because we don’t want to see Brazil and Colombia as open flanks in Venezuela’s defense.
The Colombian side, which is one that it is highly likely to be exploited, is one of the fronts that the Venezuelan gov’t is already preparing for because lots of material support are coming from that side such as the recent failed terrorist attempt to the Soviet memorial monument in Caracas. Also, Colombia is currently occupied by the US throughout their territory so they lack sovereignty to actually oppose it.
Beside Colombia, two (still speculation but highly likely) fronts are the Guyana Essequibo and Trinidad y Tobago. This article from Mision Verdad explores the other two:
I don’t know, Brazilian army is almost an extension of the US army. Brazilian intelligence apparatus depends a lot on US intelligence apparatus (such as use of US satellites and more recently, Starlink). I have no doubt the Brazilian army will at least provide intelligence for the US, and would not be surprised if they provide passage to US troops or far-right guerillas (there are many in Colombia). Lula would have to politicize the population a lot against US interests to prevent Brazil from being used by them.
So yes, I am really concerned for Venezuela. They are, at this point, basically surrounded. The hope would be if FARC groups from Colombia (and a few Brazilian Maoist guerrillas) would join Venezuela’s side.
That’s not going to happen unless the US finds a proxy willing to sacrifice itself for them like Ukraine has done. The US is far too casualty averse to directly engage in that kind of conflict themselves.
Sadly, the US has one willing proxy and that is Guyana. However, that one is still on the works from my point of view.
Guyana has a grand total of around 4,000 soldiers. Venezuela has at least 300,000. And i don’t even need to mention the disparity in their military inventories, but you can imagine.
No, the only viable proxy in that region is Colombia, and that would require regime change. And Colombia has its own internal instabilities that they need to keep in check, and getting involved in a Ukraine-type conflict would destabilize and undo everything they’ve worked for the past decades to achieve.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: