cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/26740087
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
Zero chance of that happening /s
Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.
Yep, that’s a likely outcome. It’s the timing I’m talking about - there’s 3 studies, all current, and all with wildly different conclusions, although the appearance of the cold and cooling blob above Ireland indicates (to me at least, no expert) that it’s actually happening. The Woods Hole study seems to be the least likely outcome to me, but they’re a phenomenally well-regarded oceanographic institute, and I don’t know enough to really make comparisons between them, but I do find it interesting that there’s such a variance in study results.