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Cake day: August 21st, 2023

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    1. Oregon
    2. Texas
    3. Penn State
    4. Miami
    5. Ohio State
    6. Georgia
    7. Iowa State
    8. BYU
    9. Alabama
    10. LSU
    11. Clemson
    12. Boise State
    13. Texas A&M
    14. Tennessee
    15. Notre Dame
    16. Pitt
    17. Indiana
    18. Kansas State
    19. Ole Miss
    20. SMU
    21. Missouri
    22. Army
    23. Navy
    24. Arizona State
    25. Liberty

    Human poll. Quick overview. I try to make the poll a blind resume, as in I don’t care about head to head. I prefer consistency over peaks (2 wins over a mid program will rank higher than a win against a top and a loss to a bottom. ). 3. If you are 5-0 or better, you get an auto ranking.

    Just for fun, because the end was really hard, here are my next 5 out, not in any particular order

    Illinois, Syracuse, Texas Tech, UNLV, Washington State

    This was a fun week to try and solve. I don’t love a bunch of my placements, but it sure is fun.



  • No, please poke holes in my poll. I spend time on it, but this is the first real year I have actually put pen to paper.

    For LSU and Missouri, the cop out answer is that is the 25% of the ballot I give to supposed team quality. Realistically, it shouldn’t have that big of an effect though. Those are 2 teams that, after looking at their schedule just now, I was surprised how weak all their opponents were . I feel a bit bad, because using my metrics, they should be lower. Maybe 3-5 spots each, some where in that range. The good news is, at least LSU will have a chance to make a point this weekend against Ole Miss. That game will make a much bigger difference than me re-evaluating.

    Indiana I still feel fine on. Their schedule hasn’t been impressive. I think the Nebraska game in 2 weeks is the first real challenge they will face. If they perform well, they will see a jump.

    SMU was on the short list to get ranked, but with my rule of ranking 5-0 teams, they got cut. Kansas state is the lowest ranked one loss team in my ranking, and I would take them over SMU.



    1. Texas
    2. Ohio State
    3. Oregon
    4. Penn State
    5. Miami
    6. Georgia
    7. Iowa State
    8. BYU
    9. Alabama
    10. Boise State
    11. Clemson
    12. Ole Miss
    13. Tennessee
    14. Missouri
    15. Utah
    16. Texas A&M
    17. LSU
    18. Oklahoma
    19. Notre Dame
    20. Indiana
    21. Kansas State
    22. Pitt
    23. Army
    24. Navy
    25. Liberty

    A quick overview of my methodology. I’m sure you can find contradictions, but I do try to stick to this.

    At this point in the season, I try to make the ranking 25% how good I think the team actually is, and 75% what the resume says. As we go on, the resume gets more bias.

    A few principles that I try to apply.

    1. If you are 5-0 or better, I’ll put you in. It is hard enough to get there, that even with an easier schedule, it should get you ranked. I do this for 2 reasons. First, I want to reward winning. Second, if greater 6 teams never get ranked despite what they do on the field, why bother to say they are apart of the league? Even if all these greater 6 drop a game, I’ll still try to put one or two of them up there, if I can justify it.
    2. I try to use a blind resume, where you consider the resume’s content regardless of the name. The biggest effect that this has is that I effectively ignore head to head. You can look at my poll, and complain that I ranked Georgia above Alabama, and cry afoul that Alabama beat Georgia, and should be ahead. I don’t care, because Georgia has a better resume than Alabama. You can make the same complaint against my Texas A&M/Notre Dame ranking. It doesn’t change my results.
    3. I value bad losses more than I do good wins. Again, going with Alabama and Georgia, I put more weight on the fact that Alabama lost to Vanderbilt, then I do that Alabama beat Georgia. I value reliability. If you can’t show up for the “easy wins”, then I will punish you much more than I will reward you for showing up for the big games.

  • I blame all the chaos on myself. I didn’t have time to put together a poll this week.

    I have 2 big takeaways.
    First, we really don’t have the clarity I thought we would 4/5 games into the season. We have such an even balance of presumed weaker teams that are undefeated, and presumed strong teams with a loss, that I can’t make any of it out. Roughly teams 9-35 all have legitimate claims that they should be ranked in the top 15. I know that this is supposed to get clearer every week, but it hasn’t. I feel more unsure every week.

    Second, Boise State is is the most devalued team in our poll. That team looks very good right now. With the rest of their schedule, UNLV is the only ranked game I see the rest of the way. It is possible they don’t move up very much. It really is a loss to a top 4 team hurting them (but I guess Ole Miss and Georgia have the same complaint right now).


  • You know, I thought we might get more consensus as we went along, but it seems to be getting worse.

    My big takeaway is, the power 4 conferences are getting way more benefit of the doubt than the non-power 4 teams. Mississippi State being the prime example. Going 1-3, but being ranked higher than ever non-power 4 except for Liberty and Notre Dame.

    I’m sure in a month it will be better, but we are really seeing some wild results here.


  • All human ranking here. This was a tough one for me. I feel like the top 11 or so is fairly set. You can re-organize them how you want, but it will be the same group. Then 12-18 are another group that I don’t know how to separate very well. The rest is a total crap shoot. I have no idea where anyone actually goes. Washington State VS Boise State will be a really good litmus test to show where those teams actually are.

    1. Texas
    2. Ohio State
    3. Georgia
    4. Alabama
    5. Tennessee
    6. Ole Miss
    7. Utah
    8. Miami
    9. Oregon
    10. Penn State
    11. Missouri
    12. Michigan
    13. USC
    14. Iowa State
    15. Clemson
    16. Oklahoma
    17. LSU
    18. Notre Dame
    19. Washington State
    20. BYU
    21. Illinois
    22. Louisville
    23. UNLV
    24. Boise State
    25. Texas A&M


  • I don’t get this group. How is Florida State ranked, while Texas A&M and Clemson aren’t? Never mind that Boston College is 4 spots behind. I didn’t put them on my poll, which means that Florida State got an average of #19 from the other 3 voters. I don’t know how you look at that team and still think the Seminoles are a top 20 team.

    alabama is all lowercase, please don’t fix it.

    The spreadsheet of votes is locked. I can’t see where all the polls ranked everyone.

    I see a few other trends, but I think they are just outliers due to the small sample size. I bet it will all get figured out in the next 2 weeks.


  • I think you have a fundamentally different view than I do on the characters. They are all fundamentally nice people. The difference is, they get fixated on small issues, and let it control their actions. Jerry dates a woman that only looks good in bright light? Only go on dates that have good lighting. It is something you would want to do too, but you would have the control to not let it run the relationship. Jerry doesn’t have that control, and focuses on the good lighting at the expense of everything else.

    The characters aren’t mean. They didn’t wish I’ll on anyone. Many of the episodes are them trying to find a way to get out of a situation without being honest because they think the truth would hurt too. Idiots, yes, not not jerks.

    For another example. There is an episode where a waiter accidentally puts a menu on a candle and it lights on fire. George points it out, puts the fire out, and casually mentions “I think the busboy put the menu too close to the candle.” The manager overhears this, and fires the busboy. George then finds the busboy to try and help him get another job, but leaves the front door open, and the busboy’s cat escapes. It is the perfect example of what the characters are. They don’t want to hurt people, and go to extreme lengths to do it, even though it always backfires.



  • Stock price is really just a present value of future expected earnings. Buying Coke for $100 is because you think the earnings of that share in the future is worth $100. So yes, if the company makes an announcement that it isn’t as profitable, the price will go down, because buyers won’t want to pay the same for an asset that is returns less than it was expedited to.

    Yes, there are complications. Shorts, futures, non dividend yielding shares, and more make it more muddied. At the end of it though, the future expected earnings are what is being bought and sold.


  • The current model has it’s problems, but I really think this is the start of a new major product line for Apple. This isn’t going to be relegated to only the rich forever. There are a few problems to over come. It needs to be lighter, it needs to be cheaper, and it needs better battery life. All of those should be somewhat resolved in the next 10 years. When it does, I think the market will explode.

    The big selling point? TV. I know over the last few years I have kind of fought with my mom because she is hurting her viewing experience for the sake of aesthetics. The TV is mounted, but has a cabinet in front of it. It is loaded with tons of seasonal decorations. The reason? She can’t stand the site of a cord. So instead, she has figures tall enough to cover part of the screen blocking the view of the TV, all so the cords can be hidden behind the figures. So yes, she loses part of the viewing area, and the remote doesn’t work unless you get up and go to the side of the TV so the IR sensor isn’t blocked, but it LOOKS better!!

    The thing is, she isn’t alone. I bought a TV last year. During the time researching it, I would see similar opinions to my mom’s. Peopel would post pictures of their TV setup, asking if the size was OK, or if it should be higher, and the responses would be similar, telling the person to run cables through the wall, or get smaller stands or other complaints. It made me realize that many people care about those kind of things, and it will drive their purchase decisions.

    All the Apple Vision Pro has to do is show them that you can have a TV, with no bezel, make it any size and position you want, you get rid of glare from the sun, and it has no visible cables. That alone is enough for people to want to buy it. It isn’t there today, but it will get there in the somewhat near future.


  • I hear people talk like this, but I don’t think it is actually true. Sure, fast food use to be half of a smaller joint, but now you are only paying 20-30% less at the fast food places. That ignores the fact that a lot of the cheap food is on the apps now. My Mcdonalds has had buy one get one Big Macs for about 2 years now. Even if I get that and a fry, I am looking at a $8 bill as opposed to a local joint that is going to charge $9 for their basic burger, no fries.

    This doesn’t even take into account the speed of the fast food places, which is much slower than it use to be, but still the fastest places in town. So yes, the days of a late night snack run to Taco Bell are over, but the restaurants still have a purpose. The purpose is for when you need some food right now, and not for a huge price.


  • I hadn’t read this before, and I am honestly shocked that this is the what the uproar is over. This isn’t a call to action to hurt anyone. It is basically a statement that there is a difference between a transwoman and a woman, that distinction needs to be made, and this is mainly due to society rushing to a solution without due diligence. This is not 1/100th of what it has been made out to be. If this is all it takes for someone to never want to associate with someone else, then I don’t think he should associate with anyone. Everyone is going to differ from your opinion on one topic or another, you can’t escape it.



  • This seems like the only way it has a shot. I don’t know that PS5 games are necessary, but PS4 absolutely are. Make it a portable PS4, and there is a real market there. The only downside is, it wouldn’t work with PS4 discs, which would limit sales to existing digital only owners. Also, it would be on a system without a significant new game in site. The library is 99% done. There isn’t a must play on the horizon to market. You have to hope the existing exclusives is enough.

    Honestly, I talked myself out of it. It is a bigger risk than I initially thought.


  • If you count those investor mentions, then sure, the Switch was announced quite a long time before. In my mind, those were so vague, that calling it an announcement was a stretch.

    I guess in my mind, I look at the fact that nearly every tech and media company has been moving toward announcing products closer and closer to the release. You go all in on a big marketing plan, rather than a drawn out one for over a year. I am expecting a similar schedule for Nintendo with this new system.

    Of course, Nintendo is still so successful with the Switch as is, I can see them feeling significant freedom in making an announcement whenever they want. As you mentioned, there aren’t antsy investors to please right now.