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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • I’ve gone back and forth on what to do in the event of a Trump win. I’m honestly not sure what I should do at this point. Like yeah, I live here, and I want to defend the place I grew up in from fascists… but if the government just converts to fascism, I’m not sure there’s a way to save this place in it’s current incarnation. It’ll probably be Balkanized to one degree or another after a LOT of messy conflict. And the corollary there is that we won’t be backstopping global stability, like, at all any more, which will have a shitload of absolutely horrific effects in so, so many regions. And yeah - I get that a lot of countries resent American hegemony. As an American, we’ve done a pretty shit job of “defending democracy” (largely because authoritarian regimes are the more stable option for basing agreements). But at the same time, I can guaran-fucking-tee you that Russian and CCP hegemony will be worse.




  • But for real, this is the sort of thing that would trigger a progression of events that would almost certainly lead to open civil war. Think about it:

    • deputization of specific red-state and red-friendly NG and CBP personnel occurs
    • theyre sent to blue states and blue metro areas in particular
    • they probably do some Krystalnacht shit, and also probably try to fuck with the state and local governments at the very least, and likely try to do outright violent coups against them
    • blue Governors who are on the ball are gonna be like “fuuuuuuuck that” and mobilize their own NG contingents for the defense of their own states and its population
    • trump tries to nationalize said defending blue states NGs; the governors tell him to fuck himself
    • the NG commanders are faced with a choice: follow what could be very clearly construed as an illegal order by the president, or try to stick to what the spirit of their oath actually is. It’s anybody’s guess how exactly that will play out. Nonetheless, I’m certain some state NGs will echo their governor’s sentiment
    • open, armed conflict between US States

    So yeah. That’s super fun to think about. Wcgw.












  • Seriously - I’m genuinely baffled at the complete geopolitical ineptitude that occurred in 2014. It was a categorical abrogation of the Budapest Memorandum, which guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty in exchange for their surrender of old Soviet nukes based in their territory.

    Nobody is going to make a deal like that going forward. The nuclear non-proliferation movement is entirely dead. Nukes are, categorically, the absolute final word in guaranteeing a country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. There is no substitute. Genuinely, the complete and total lack of meaningful action in the defense of Ukraine was the most apocalyptically stupid geopolitical move that Obama and Merkel made during their stints as leaders of the western world.