• trollercoaster@sh.itjust.worksDeutsch
    8·
    12 hours ago

    The CDU will use the AfD to blackmail the SPD into bending over backwards in order to form a coalition with them. The SPD, having no spine, will do just that. The Bavarian CSU will get the Ministry of Transportation, and possibly another ministry with resources they can generously sprinkle over the Bavarian landscape at the expense of the entire rest of country, otherwise it will be another four years of cutbacks in the social sector and infrastructure for the benefit of big business. If this future government even makes the full four years, afterwards, the AfD will be even stronger due to people being shat on all over once more.

    I’m afraid we’re right on track for repeating history before the 100 year anniversary.

  • superkret@feddit.org
    15·
    15 hours ago

    The conservative CDU/CSU will lead the government.
    Before the election they have ruled out coalitions with the far right AfD, the Greens and the Left party.
    Which leaves only one option: A coalition with the social democrats SPD.
    If the social democrats were smart, they could now drive up the price of the coalition and demand lots of concessions from the conservatives, since they painted themselves into a corner.
    But the social democrats aren’t tactically smart that way. They’ll cave and become a good little junior partner, afraid that any pressure would push the conservatives to ally with the far right AfD, and they’ll be fed some scraps for electing CDU’s Merz as chancellor.

    Very little progress will happen in the next 4 years, our infrastructure will continue to crumble, and the reform of our traffic sector will grind to a halt. But at least both parties aren’t fans of Putin or enemies of the EU, and the SPD will likely manage to prevent any conservative policy roll-back. My guess is defense spending will increase and nothing will be done about the cost of living.
    Then in the next election, it will need a coalition of 3-4 parties to still keep the Nazis out of government.

    • Pilferjinx@lemmy.world
      2·
      12 hours ago

      Can the CDU break the promise of not collaborating with the AfD? Or is there a guarantee? If those two form a coalition it would dominate all other possible coalitions. It feels like there’s a lot of overlap between the two.

      • superkret@feddit.org
        3·
        10 hours ago

        There is never a guarantee, elected representatives can vote however they want.
        But if they break that promise, there will be huge demonstrations and strikes everywhere.
        The CDU will lose most of their core voters, and a large number of their members.
        The much more likely outcome would be that Merz loses all internal support as soon as he announces it.

      • trollercoaster@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
        3·
        12 hours ago

        They can do whatever they like. Politicians and political parties are in no way bound to their promises, which they like to show off once more every election cycle.

      • Gloomy@mander.xyz
        3·
        12 hours ago

        It’s possible, but not likley in this election-cycle. If they have to choose between a coalition with one or more left parties and the AFD, it is possible that they will indeed choose the right wing option, since they are, as you point out correctly, much closer in their ideology.

      • Bonifratz@lemm.ee
        3·
        12 hours ago

        I don’t see that happening on the federal level, yet. On the state level, it seems very likely to me that we will have a CDU-AfD coalition in one of the former GDR states some time in the next years. Depending how things develop, I’m also afraid of it happening on the federal level in the next elections. But for now, there’s still too many CDU MPs as well as voters (e. g. my parents) who would be diametrically opposed to a coalition with the AfD. While I don’t trust Merz at all, I think he knows that it would lead to massive trouble from within his own party, something he cannot risk at this point in time.

  • Undertaker@feddit.org
    51·
    15 hours ago

    There is only one option: SPD + CDU/CSU

    We will get democracy and society adverse laws in terms of police and mass surveillance. Furthermore thus country won’t make it into a future as a string market competitor as well got both conservative parties.

  • Dunstabzugshaubitze@feddit.org
    17·
    23 hours ago

    in terms of which parties will makeup the goverment?

    hard to tell right now, CDU and SPD seems most likely to me.

    everything else?

    we had a very high voter participiation ( probably around 83%) and still a fascist party reached 20% of votes, which is depressing as hell.

    I don’t see how the CDU will tackle any actual problems, a huge chunk of our work force will retire in the coming years, and we still fail to integrate enough foreign workers to counter act that and are not doing enough to treat refugees and migrants in a way that would allow them to become a qualified part of the work force in a reasonable amount of time.

    housing prices will continue to rise, infrastructure in general would need hefty investments, which are almost impossible to make because of the so called “Schuldenbremse” and climate change won’t be treated as a world wide emergency but as a cost factor for industries that are not sustainable if we actually want to live on this Planet.

    tl;dr: It sucks, and it will get worse.