The west will in the near term likely descend into barbarism, open reaction, what fascism was in the 20th century Europe. (That or it’ll pull off some sort of miraculous crushing of the global south and buying capitalism breathing room for another 40 years)
So I think we could see a revolution the next 20 years, I just don’t think it’ll be a socialist one.
I also don’t discount the real possibility that the bourgeoisie in the west try to take their ball and go home, try and do dark enlightenment, neo-feudalism, and just build a high fence around it. What that actually ends up looking like in practice I wouldn’t know but I think it’s truly possible they find a way to keep the situation miserable but stable for another hundred years with the current power structure mostly the same. Climate change is certainly set to come in on the side of the US. Technology like AI and more specifically robotics dangles the promise of automation that’s good enough to serve as a control mechanism on the population, total information control, total surveillance, etc from which the ultimate breaking free would likely only come about from the decay of such systems out of neglect and greed.
I certainly HOPE there is a revolution, a Marxist one in the global north in the next 60 years. I’d like to see that before I die, I’d like for it to come sooner than that as in 60 years I have a pretty good chance of being dead of natural causes.
But we must remember how hard it is to predict history. Asked 100 years ago socialists in our place would have said Germany or Britain, etc would probably experience a revolution in their lifetime and they were wrong. Lenin thought he’d never live to see the revolution and he was wrong about that. We must however take from the past century how adaptable capitalism is. They have our playbook, they have experience correcting for, adjusting to many of their problems that give rise to revolutionary potential and they have a century of anti-communism propaganda messaging as well as 30 years of end of history messaging.
It seems unknowable, too many variables. It really hinges on can China become a communist super-power, avoid being crushed by the west, avoid being nuked by the west, avoid being strangled and can it exert power including trade and friendship better than the west can extend neo-colonialism, color revolutions, fomented extremism and terrorism/separatism to the rest of the world? If it can, if the west’s grasp on the rest of the world slips then short of the west deciding to use nuclear weapons and destroy human civilization then sooner or later I think we’ll have won. I think we’ll know the results of this within 10 years by 2035 we’ll see the fruits of the west’s plans or China’s plans.
The west is trying delaying actions because climate change is coming in on their side so that’s a big unknown, that could really hit China hard regardless of all their efforts and become a real drain while the US is almost certain to weather that new reality among the best of all nations.
The US has an exceptionally good position in terms of geography basically.
Two oceans, tons of very fertile land, enough of it nothernly that it will still be viable with work under the conditions of climate change. That and the country is big enough, and spans enough climates that though parts of it like the southwest and parts of the south will become brutal and deadly in summer, there’s still huge amounts of it for the amount of people that live within the borders far north of that in safer areas. Add on no real desertification problems, fairly plentiful water from rivers replenished by snowpacks (yes it’s not enough for all the capitalist greed but it’s still a lot). And many other factors and I’ve read (not a climate expert) in multiple places that the US is kind of uniquely well situated to suffer among the least from climate change (more landmass immune to natural disasters brought on by it, lower risk of famine or crop failure sufficient to truly cause mass starvation or want, plentiful fresh water, plentiful fertile top-soil, and fewer climate refugees and more easily controlled thanks to only the southern Mexican border being relevant).
China by contrast even without climate change has large amounts of desert, not as much high quality fertile soil areas with water access compared to the amount in the US (they’re a big importer of food from the US while the US is a huge food exporter to China and many other places). They’re in a latitude that’s closer to the equator and so more vulnerable to extreme heat in summers through most of their land. Add on the fact that large parts of China given their location are more vulnerable to high humidity and the danger of regions there hitting wet bulb temperature is higher than in most of the US outside of Louisiana and the rest of the immediate gulf area plus Florida. They’re combating desertification but it is still something they have to contend with, that is a large amount of their land is part of or borders a desert, the regions that don’t which are more amenable to growing are more concentrated by the sea so more vulnerable to extreme storms, typhoons, flooding events, and the aforementioned wet bulb.
Most of northern China, is low lying flat lands. A rise in sea levels of 50 feet will see most of the Central Valley plains region being completely submerged. The increase of temperature that would make the American southwest uninhabitable applies to pretty much everywhere south of the Yangtze. Add on to the rise of climate refugees as well.
The west will in the near term likely descend into barbarism, open reaction, what fascism was in the 20th century Europe. (That or it’ll pull off some sort of miraculous crushing of the global south and buying capitalism breathing room for another 40 years)
So I think we could see a revolution the next 20 years, I just don’t think it’ll be a socialist one.
I also don’t discount the real possibility that the bourgeoisie in the west try to take their ball and go home, try and do dark enlightenment, neo-feudalism, and just build a high fence around it. What that actually ends up looking like in practice I wouldn’t know but I think it’s truly possible they find a way to keep the situation miserable but stable for another hundred years with the current power structure mostly the same. Climate change is certainly set to come in on the side of the US. Technology like AI and more specifically robotics dangles the promise of automation that’s good enough to serve as a control mechanism on the population, total information control, total surveillance, etc from which the ultimate breaking free would likely only come about from the decay of such systems out of neglect and greed.
I certainly HOPE there is a revolution, a Marxist one in the global north in the next 60 years. I’d like to see that before I die, I’d like for it to come sooner than that as in 60 years I have a pretty good chance of being dead of natural causes.
But we must remember how hard it is to predict history. Asked 100 years ago socialists in our place would have said Germany or Britain, etc would probably experience a revolution in their lifetime and they were wrong. Lenin thought he’d never live to see the revolution and he was wrong about that. We must however take from the past century how adaptable capitalism is. They have our playbook, they have experience correcting for, adjusting to many of their problems that give rise to revolutionary potential and they have a century of anti-communism propaganda messaging as well as 30 years of end of history messaging.
It seems unknowable, too many variables. It really hinges on can China become a communist super-power, avoid being crushed by the west, avoid being nuked by the west, avoid being strangled and can it exert power including trade and friendship better than the west can extend neo-colonialism, color revolutions, fomented extremism and terrorism/separatism to the rest of the world? If it can, if the west’s grasp on the rest of the world slips then short of the west deciding to use nuclear weapons and destroy human civilization then sooner or later I think we’ll have won. I think we’ll know the results of this within 10 years by 2035 we’ll see the fruits of the west’s plans or China’s plans.
The west is trying delaying actions because climate change is coming in on their side so that’s a big unknown, that could really hit China hard regardless of all their efforts and become a real drain while the US is almost certain to weather that new reality among the best of all nations.
Wait, how come the USA will be less hit than China in the future due to climate change?
The US has an exceptionally good position in terms of geography basically.
Two oceans, tons of very fertile land, enough of it nothernly that it will still be viable with work under the conditions of climate change. That and the country is big enough, and spans enough climates that though parts of it like the southwest and parts of the south will become brutal and deadly in summer, there’s still huge amounts of it for the amount of people that live within the borders far north of that in safer areas. Add on no real desertification problems, fairly plentiful water from rivers replenished by snowpacks (yes it’s not enough for all the capitalist greed but it’s still a lot). And many other factors and I’ve read (not a climate expert) in multiple places that the US is kind of uniquely well situated to suffer among the least from climate change (more landmass immune to natural disasters brought on by it, lower risk of famine or crop failure sufficient to truly cause mass starvation or want, plentiful fresh water, plentiful fertile top-soil, and fewer climate refugees and more easily controlled thanks to only the southern Mexican border being relevant).
China by contrast even without climate change has large amounts of desert, not as much high quality fertile soil areas with water access compared to the amount in the US (they’re a big importer of food from the US while the US is a huge food exporter to China and many other places). They’re in a latitude that’s closer to the equator and so more vulnerable to extreme heat in summers through most of their land. Add on the fact that large parts of China given their location are more vulnerable to high humidity and the danger of regions there hitting wet bulb temperature is higher than in most of the US outside of Louisiana and the rest of the immediate gulf area plus Florida. They’re combating desertification but it is still something they have to contend with, that is a large amount of their land is part of or borders a desert, the regions that don’t which are more amenable to growing are more concentrated by the sea so more vulnerable to extreme storms, typhoons, flooding events, and the aforementioned wet bulb.
Most of northern China, is low lying flat lands. A rise in sea levels of 50 feet will see most of the Central Valley plains region being completely submerged. The increase of temperature that would make the American southwest uninhabitable applies to pretty much everywhere south of the Yangtze. Add on to the rise of climate refugees as well.