The biggest polling “miss” is 6% and that was one state 16 years ago, but they even included one that was <1%
Standard margin of error is around 3.5% with a 95% confidence, and the vast majority of “misses” were well within that. Depending on survey tho, margins if 5% or even higher do happen. But even if it was 2.5% over the margin of error, polls aren’t perfect representation and sometimes it does happen.
The big problem is what they spend the first part of the article on: national polling
It’s completely useless, it shouldn’t be because we should be using a national popular vote. Until we fix that a national poll means nothing.
I just hate people got obsessed with the whole “polls aren’t real, they’re dirty liars!” When polls showed Biden wasn’t going to be able to get it done.
The biggest polling “miss” is 6% and that was one state 16 years ago, but they even included one that was <1%
Standard margin of error is around 3.5% with a 95% confidence, and the vast majority of “misses” were well within that. Depending on survey tho, margins if 5% or even higher do happen. But even if it was 2.5% over the margin of error, polls aren’t perfect representation and sometimes it does happen.
The big problem is what they spend the first part of the article on: national polling
It’s completely useless, it shouldn’t be because we should be using a national popular vote. Until we fix that a national poll means nothing.
I just hate people got obsessed with the whole “polls aren’t real, they’re dirty liars!” When polls showed Biden wasn’t going to be able to get it done.