I’m risking that statement because I’m seeing a good deal of events similar to what happened the last time we went through one (the world) and the big companies starting to let go people is like the canary in the mine.
Step out of the SV bubble and you’ll see the economy is fine. The fact that tech was dumb and overextended themselves during and shortly after COVID while relying on ZIRP to fund those expenditures doesn’t mean everyone else did. Stir in changes to tax treatment around R&D that disproportionately impact tech and and no one should be surprised that industry might be getting hit while the rest of the economy ticks on just fine.
But… Why do you assume I have instant knowledge of acronyms because I opted to insert a comment on a topic that teased my interest? Does it pressuposes anything about my person?
Last global recession generally considered 2020 I believe i.e. covid. Before that 2008/9 sub-prime housing. I don’t see either of those events happening now. Could you be more specific?
Let’s call that example the canary in the mine but I’m seeing many similar situations where I live.
Being in a less than urban area, there is still a bit of industry around and some factories are cutting staff and a few have already shut down operations, especially in sectors more closely related with end user products (clothing, footwear, yarn, etc). Industries with ties to industrial use (metal working, construction materials, wood and derivates) are keeping afloat but only replacing workers that go into retirement or that for some reason or another just quit, and these industries, in my understanding, are keeping afloat because of the hard push into more sustainable and efficient houses, which is forcing a good deal of public investment into large renovation projects and funds.
Parallel to this, bakeries, coffee shops, small businesses that rely on consumption, are shutting down. For me, this implies there is less money floating around.
Thanks for your observations and I won’t argue them. The problem with a word like recession is that we’re in what I see as, the poor get poorer, the rich get richer. The middle class, what’s left of it, is mainly moving toward being poor. That said, the “smart” economy people will say “we are not in a recession and in fact the economy is good.” And it is good, very good in fact - for the privileged. Wealth inequality is the issue, at least in my view.
Exactly. This person is noticing a local recession and believes the entire world is like their small town. It isn’t.
Recessions have causes and “housing expensive” is not a cause. In a recession everyone loses, not just “some factory workers” or “people who rent”. This person is describing the effects of situational unemployment, which can hurt small towns reliant on only one industry.
I smell a recession forming!
If you’re so sure you should run off and short the S&P 500.
The only thing I’m sure of is death and taxes.
I’m risking that statement because I’m seeing a good deal of events similar to what happened the last time we went through one (the world) and the big companies starting to let go people is like the canary in the mine.
Because FAANG is the entire economy? Please.
Step out of the SV bubble and you’ll see the economy is fine. The fact that tech was dumb and overextended themselves during and shortly after COVID while relying on ZIRP to fund those expenditures doesn’t mean everyone else did. Stir in changes to tax treatment around R&D that disproportionately impact tech and and no one should be surprised that industry might be getting hit while the rest of the economy ticks on just fine.
You are going to have to unfold all of those acronyms before we can move forward with this conversation.
I don’t have the palest of ideas of what you are trying to convey.
ZIRP - zero interest rate policy. Very common term for anyone following macroeconomic policy since 2008.
Given the group we’re in I hope I don’t have to explain the rest.
Thank you.
But… Why do you assume I have instant knowledge of acronyms because I opted to insert a comment on a topic that teased my interest? Does it pressuposes anything about my person?
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Nice abbreviations!
Last global recession generally considered 2020 I believe i.e. covid. Before that 2008/9 sub-prime housing. I don’t see either of those events happening now. Could you be more specific?
Good morning.
Let’s call that example the canary in the mine but I’m seeing many similar situations where I live.
Being in a less than urban area, there is still a bit of industry around and some factories are cutting staff and a few have already shut down operations, especially in sectors more closely related with end user products (clothing, footwear, yarn, etc). Industries with ties to industrial use (metal working, construction materials, wood and derivates) are keeping afloat but only replacing workers that go into retirement or that for some reason or another just quit, and these industries, in my understanding, are keeping afloat because of the hard push into more sustainable and efficient houses, which is forcing a good deal of public investment into large renovation projects and funds.
Parallel to this, bakeries, coffee shops, small businesses that rely on consumption, are shutting down. For me, this implies there is less money floating around.
Paired with the hike in housing…
Thanks for your observations and I won’t argue them. The problem with a word like recession is that we’re in what I see as, the poor get poorer, the rich get richer. The middle class, what’s left of it, is mainly moving toward being poor. That said, the “smart” economy people will say “we are not in a recession and in fact the economy is good.” And it is good, very good in fact - for the privileged. Wealth inequality is the issue, at least in my view.
Exactly. This person is noticing a local recession and believes the entire world is like their small town. It isn’t.
Recessions have causes and “housing expensive” is not a cause. In a recession everyone loses, not just “some factory workers” or “people who rent”. This person is describing the effects of situational unemployment, which can hurt small towns reliant on only one industry.
Google has something like 140k employees (Wikipedia 2021).