I am not a “year of linux” huffer. The majority of the population doesn’t even know what a filesystem is, much less (for example) how to get to the BIOS setting they need to even install linux.
But 3% is absolutely a threshold for “viral social spread” amongst those that can.
I think it really depends on your definition of what counts as year of Linux. Will Linux usage ever beat Windows or Mac? Of course not. But it can definitely get popular enough that companies have to think really hard about whether they need to support Linux or not. And meanwhile, Linux isn’t going to get popular overnight (or in a year, for that matter). So do you consider the year of the Linux to be the end of growth? Middle of growth? Or beginning of growth?
For me, I think year of the Linux desktop already passed in 2021, with the launch of the steam deck (where I’m defining year of Linux to be the point where Linux usage picks up and will hopefully end at a point where companies have to take Linux seriously)
I consider the “year of linux” when OEMs ship it in laptops and desktops, in volume.
In other words, it’s when I see several linux laptops in Best Buy.
Sadly, we might ‘miss’ that window. It seems like regular folks are moving to tablets, phones, and Android PCs for home use. Business will be stuck on Windows forever. So it appears the future we’re barreling to is iOS/Android for the masses, laptops (mostly) as pure workplace machines, and then the PC gaming sector essentially depreciating Windows and migrating to (in delicious irony) Windows APIs on linux.
It’s like damn look how good the general Linux desktop got with barely any general consumer adoption for about 30 years. Imagine what it could get around ~10%. 20 years ago Mac’s were only around 5%. I love gaming on Linux but my main thought is how this is the trojan horse that brings users and some funding and developer attention to open source applications. Kdenlive needs love. Ardour needs love. Darktable. Get them all the Blender treatment someday
3% is insane.
I am not a “year of linux” huffer. The majority of the population doesn’t even know what a filesystem is, much less (for example) how to get to the BIOS setting they need to even install linux.
But 3% is absolutely a threshold for “viral social spread” amongst those that can.
I think it really depends on your definition of what counts as year of Linux. Will Linux usage ever beat Windows or Mac? Of course not. But it can definitely get popular enough that companies have to think really hard about whether they need to support Linux or not. And meanwhile, Linux isn’t going to get popular overnight (or in a year, for that matter). So do you consider the year of the Linux to be the end of growth? Middle of growth? Or beginning of growth?
For me, I think year of the Linux desktop already passed in 2021, with the launch of the steam deck (where I’m defining year of Linux to be the point where Linux usage picks up and will hopefully end at a point where companies have to take Linux seriously)
I consider the “year of linux” when OEMs ship it in laptops and desktops, in volume.
In other words, it’s when I see several linux laptops in Best Buy.
Sadly, we might ‘miss’ that window. It seems like regular folks are moving to tablets, phones, and Android PCs for home use. Business will be stuck on Windows forever. So it appears the future we’re barreling to is iOS/Android for the masses, laptops (mostly) as pure workplace machines, and then the PC gaming sector essentially depreciating Windows and migrating to (in delicious irony) Windows APIs on linux.
It’s like damn look how good the general Linux desktop got with barely any general consumer adoption for about 30 years. Imagine what it could get around ~10%. 20 years ago Mac’s were only around 5%. I love gaming on Linux but my main thought is how this is the trojan horse that brings users and some funding and developer attention to open source applications. Kdenlive needs love. Ardour needs love. Darktable. Get them all the Blender treatment someday