The U.S. housing market is going to face a price correction “worse than 2008,” according to housing analyst Melody Wright, who expects home prices to drop in half as soon as next year.
Rising inventory and dwindling demand have brought down home prices in many U.S. metropolitan areas this year, especially in those markets in the Sunbelt and the South which became overheated between 2020 and 2022.
At the national level, the vertiginous price growth that characterized the pandemic years has also slowed to a grind, with the median sale price of a home in October only 1.2 percent higher than a year ago, according to Redfin, at $439,701.
According to a new report from Zillow, 53 percent of all U.S. homes lost value over the past 12 months—the most since 2012.
Housing and sales demand are at least a 6 month boat to start to see changes based on policy and runs much more on interia.
The fed is already starting to cut rates in the summer/fall. Trump will replace Powell in May when his term ends and probably announce it sooner than that, maybe Jan. Mortgage rates will start to drop and the next great reinflation will begin.
Sales started slowing years ago and the only reason why articles like these have started to appear in the last 2 months is the bubble is cracking and will start to affect the broader economy e.g. banks so they have full court press on gov to reduce interest rates for Dec. Getting the average consumer/voter scared helps this.
Also worth noting that from an international perspective there’s still plenty of room for worse pricing. People have been calling for a crash for over a decade now but I’m not seeing it. More likely there may be a very modest correction due to other somewhat unrelated asset bubble stuff but it could just as easily go a number of other directions.
The stock market is currently in fantasy land because rich people are betting on AI replacing you and more importantly have nowhere else to put money that can outperform inflation. If AI stops pumping markets they’ll have to move the money elsewhere, that could mean a stock market crash taking home prices with it but just as easily they could throw it in real estate and start buying up properties so who the fuck knows.