This is a fucking loss for Ukraine holy shit, the only thing here is Ukraine gets “security guarantees” (but no clue what that looks like) and gets to join the EU tbh I honestly thought that once the war is over no one wanted to invest money into rebuilding Ukraine looks like I was wrong
Rebuilding a destroyed country is a great way to make a lot of money for capitalists. You have a very poor and desperate workforce, can buy property at super low prices and in a couple years the valuation of all capital there will jump back up. Look at post war Federal Germany.
Yes and no NATO creep was promised before, although under someone different. Did Putin propose the financial arrangement, where sanctioned money and 50% profit sharing deal is agreeable? I’m sorry to have to ask, it’s late, I’m tired and a lot is happening. I can’t remember it all.
This is 100% an American proposal. The Russians will look at it and if there is something they don’t like they will propose corrections. I suspect that the notion of agreeing to having their foreign reserves stolen to pay for Ukraine is a non-starter. As is not getting all four annexed oblasts which are now part of the Russian constitution in their entirety.
The rest, as Yog said, is fairly close to what the Russians were demanding: a kind of “Istanbul plus”. The thing is though, that already most of this proposal is completely unacceptable to the Kiev regime and its European backers, who will probably reject it and insist on continuing the war. That in turn allows the US to walk away and leave Europe holding the bag, and Russia to impose its demands by military means, which the Russians are already prepared for, and will result in even harsher terms (just like the current terms are much harsher than those offered by Russia in Istanbul 2022, which in turn were much worse than the Minsk agreements - notice the pattern?) than what Ukraine could be getting now while they still have an army that is on the brink but not yet collapsed.
The reason why I am fairly confident that this will be rejected by the Kiev junta is because it is so humiliating and such a total defeat of the whole Maidan/Banderite nationalist and pro-West project that it would lead to the overthrow of the regime. What would happen in the long run if all conditions are met is that Ukraine would drift slowly but surely back into Russia’s orbit.
I very much agree, I just can’t see how either Ukraine or Europe could ever swallow this deal. There’s simply no way to spin it as some kind of a win, and that makes it politically impossible. They’d have to own up to their own people that last three and a half years were all for nothing, and that it would’ve been far more rational to have taken the Istanbul deal at the very start of the war. The problem of course is that it can only get worse from here on out, so they may be able to delay the outcome by a few months, but after that they’ll be right back where they are now, except the US will have walked away by then.
I suspect that the notion of agreeing to having their foreign reserves stolen to pay for Ukraine is a non-starter.
Yes, it definitely put me on defense, and I was super-tired and I don’t even live there.
As is not getting all four annexed oblasts which are now part of the Russian constitution in their entirety.
Also understandable.
The thing is though, that already most of this proposal is completely unacceptable to the Kiev regime and its European backers, who will probably reject it and insist on continuing the war.
NGL, I actually agreed with Trump saying “you’re so negative! This is a good deal, you should take it (or something similar)!”
That in turn allows the US to walk away and leave Europe holding the bag, and Russia to impose its demands by military means, which the Russians are already prepared for, and will result in even harsher terms
Yep.
(just like the current terms are much harsher than those offered by Russia in Istanbul 2022, which in turn were much worse than the Minsk agreements - notice the pattern?) than what Ukraine could be getting now while they still have an army that is on the brink but not yet collapsed.
"Double or nothing! Triple or nothing! Quadruple or nothing!” My noticing that pattern isn’t the question; I wonder if EU will decide that game is still worth it when USA walks? Kyiv can reject it all they want, but without someone else funding the war machine, I don’t think they can play. As far as Europe is concerned, there’s a hard and fast gambling rule all but fools don’t observe: don’t play on scared money. So I guess we will see.
Thanks for your reply. Our thoughts are aligned, but sometimes I want a reality check, because I’m still learning.
I actually agreed with Trump saying “you’re so negative! This is a good deal, you should take it (or something similar)!”
And he is right. This is still a very good deal for Ukraine. With the way things are going on the battlefield right now this would be a major win for Ukraine if the Russians would accept these terms as written.
But instead of recognizing that reality what we’re hearing right now from Kiev and European capitals is that this is totally unacceptable and just a capitulation to Putin and that giving up anything at all to the Russians is a red line. They really live in their own delusional world, and that won’t change until the US pulls the rug out from under them.
When exactly that will happen is hard to predict because Trump is so erratic and completely changes his mind from one day to the next based on personal whims. But for Russia it doesn’t really matter because the current trajectory is entirely in their favor. They have time on their side and the longer this drags the worse Ukraine’s battlefield position gets, and this is currently happening at an accelerated, unprecedented pace.
I’m not going to go into all of that right now and i will put off posting about what is happening on the battlefield until the situation stops changing so rapidly that it is hard to even keep up with, but if i was Ukrainian i would have only one word to describe it, and that’s: catastrophic.
I think the Europeans are still deep in denial about it, but US military and intelligence understand this and this is why the Trump administration are starting to put serious pressure on Zelensky to get a deal done asap before things get much much worse, which could easily happen in a matter of months.
When exactly that will happen is hard to predict because Trump is so erratic and completely changes his mind from one day to the next based on personal whims.
It depends on if he listens to Miller, who is almost certainly completely delusional (but also extremely cunning and instinctively good at manipulation) or someone more able to distance their logic from their own emotional triggers.
But for Russia it doesn’t really matter because the current trajectory is entirely in their favor. They have time on their side and the longer this drags the worse Ukraine’s battlefield position gets, and this is currently happening at an accelerated, unprecedented pace.
Absolutely, and I suspect their finances must be in decent enough shape to play the long game without access to their own money the EU is trying to sort how to slap a sheen of legality on the confiscation of it.
I’m not going to go into all of that right now and i will put off posting about what is happening on the battlefield until the situation stops changing so rapidly that it is hard to even keep up with, but if i was Ukrainian i would have only one word to describe it, and that’s: catastrophic.
Yes; someone mentioned some months ago it’s almost enough to conjure sympathy for Zelinsky…not quite though. He was between a rock and hard place and decided to go all in with the Nazis. His head was always on the chopping block, though, he could have chosen to sacrifice himself fighting the good fight and didn’t. And I get it. Odds may have seemed a little different, at the moment of decision.
Anyway, it is too early to predict specifics, and I appreciate honest acknowledgement much more than bs. Thank you for that.
I suspect their finances must be in decent enough shape to play the long game without access to their own money the EU is trying to sort how to slap a sheen of legality on the confiscation of it.
I think that’s pretty much a given. I mean they’ve been able to function just fine for three years now without those funds. The reason why I say that Russia is very unlikely to give consent to its frozen reserves being used for Ukraine even in a peace deal that would otherwise be very favorable to Russia is not because they desperately need those funds but because the frozen reserves are a massive poison pill for the Western financial system.
The way i see it Russia is using that money as bait, as a trap essentially almost daring the Europeans to seize it because that will lead to trust in their entire financial system imploding if they cross that line. This however relies on Russia continuing to insist on its lawful ownership of the frozen reserves. I think however that Russia would secretly be quite happy if the Europeans were to make the enormous strategic blunder of pulling the trigger on that theft.
And the smarter Europeans understand this. Problem is that Europe is led by a bunch of fanatics right now who might just be desperate and stupid enough to do it against the advice of their own financial and legal experts.
Russia hasn’t agreed to anything so far. This is just what the US is floating as their initial position, and it’s already not far from what Russia demanded. The point with NATO creep is that it will now be enforced by Russia. These are the conditions, if NATO breaks them then the war restarts. We’ll see if Russia decides that the profit sharing deal is acceptable to them or not.
https://archive.is/Hh5Sa
Of course USA is the guaranteed winner, here. Everything else is sus af.
This is a fucking loss for Ukraine holy shit, the only thing here is Ukraine gets “security guarantees” (but no clue what that looks like) and gets to join the EU tbh I honestly thought that once the war is over no one wanted to invest money into rebuilding Ukraine looks like I was wrong
Rebuilding a destroyed country is a great way to make a lot of money for capitalists. You have a very poor and desperate workforce, can buy property at super low prices and in a couple years the valuation of all capital there will jump back up. Look at post war Federal Germany.
It seems that the US is actually accepting Russian terms here. This is basically what Putin laid out in 2024 as Istanbul plus.
Yes and no NATO creep was promised before, although under someone different. Did Putin propose the financial arrangement, where sanctioned money and 50% profit sharing deal is agreeable? I’m sorry to have to ask, it’s late, I’m tired and a lot is happening. I can’t remember it all.
This is 100% an American proposal. The Russians will look at it and if there is something they don’t like they will propose corrections. I suspect that the notion of agreeing to having their foreign reserves stolen to pay for Ukraine is a non-starter. As is not getting all four annexed oblasts which are now part of the Russian constitution in their entirety.
The rest, as Yog said, is fairly close to what the Russians were demanding: a kind of “Istanbul plus”. The thing is though, that already most of this proposal is completely unacceptable to the Kiev regime and its European backers, who will probably reject it and insist on continuing the war. That in turn allows the US to walk away and leave Europe holding the bag, and Russia to impose its demands by military means, which the Russians are already prepared for, and will result in even harsher terms (just like the current terms are much harsher than those offered by Russia in Istanbul 2022, which in turn were much worse than the Minsk agreements - notice the pattern?) than what Ukraine could be getting now while they still have an army that is on the brink but not yet collapsed.
The reason why I am fairly confident that this will be rejected by the Kiev junta is because it is so humiliating and such a total defeat of the whole Maidan/Banderite nationalist and pro-West project that it would lead to the overthrow of the regime. What would happen in the long run if all conditions are met is that Ukraine would drift slowly but surely back into Russia’s orbit.
I very much agree, I just can’t see how either Ukraine or Europe could ever swallow this deal. There’s simply no way to spin it as some kind of a win, and that makes it politically impossible. They’d have to own up to their own people that last three and a half years were all for nothing, and that it would’ve been far more rational to have taken the Istanbul deal at the very start of the war. The problem of course is that it can only get worse from here on out, so they may be able to delay the outcome by a few months, but after that they’ll be right back where they are now, except the US will have walked away by then.
Yes, it definitely put me on defense, and I was super-tired and I don’t even live there.
Also understandable.
NGL, I actually agreed with Trump saying “you’re so negative! This is a good deal, you should take it (or something similar)!”
Yep.
"Double or nothing! Triple or nothing! Quadruple or nothing!” My noticing that pattern isn’t the question; I wonder if EU will decide that game is still worth it when USA walks? Kyiv can reject it all they want, but without someone else funding the war machine, I don’t think they can play. As far as Europe is concerned, there’s a hard and fast gambling rule all but fools don’t observe: don’t play on scared money. So I guess we will see.
Thanks for your reply. Our thoughts are aligned, but sometimes I want a reality check, because I’m still learning.
And he is right. This is still a very good deal for Ukraine. With the way things are going on the battlefield right now this would be a major win for Ukraine if the Russians would accept these terms as written.
But instead of recognizing that reality what we’re hearing right now from Kiev and European capitals is that this is totally unacceptable and just a capitulation to Putin and that giving up anything at all to the Russians is a red line. They really live in their own delusional world, and that won’t change until the US pulls the rug out from under them.
When exactly that will happen is hard to predict because Trump is so erratic and completely changes his mind from one day to the next based on personal whims. But for Russia it doesn’t really matter because the current trajectory is entirely in their favor. They have time on their side and the longer this drags the worse Ukraine’s battlefield position gets, and this is currently happening at an accelerated, unprecedented pace.
I’m not going to go into all of that right now and i will put off posting about what is happening on the battlefield until the situation stops changing so rapidly that it is hard to even keep up with, but if i was Ukrainian i would have only one word to describe it, and that’s: catastrophic.
I think the Europeans are still deep in denial about it, but US military and intelligence understand this and this is why the Trump administration are starting to put serious pressure on Zelensky to get a deal done asap before things get much much worse, which could easily happen in a matter of months.
It depends on if he listens to Miller, who is almost certainly completely delusional (but also extremely cunning and instinctively good at manipulation) or someone more able to distance their logic from their own emotional triggers.
Absolutely, and I suspect their finances must be in decent enough shape to play the long game without access to their own money the EU is trying to sort how to slap a sheen of legality on the confiscation of it.
Yes; someone mentioned some months ago it’s almost enough to conjure sympathy for Zelinsky…not quite though. He was between a rock and hard place and decided to go all in with the Nazis. His head was always on the chopping block, though, he could have chosen to sacrifice himself fighting the good fight and didn’t. And I get it. Odds may have seemed a little different, at the moment of decision.
Anyway, it is too early to predict specifics, and I appreciate honest acknowledgement much more than bs. Thank you for that.
I think that’s pretty much a given. I mean they’ve been able to function just fine for three years now without those funds. The reason why I say that Russia is very unlikely to give consent to its frozen reserves being used for Ukraine even in a peace deal that would otherwise be very favorable to Russia is not because they desperately need those funds but because the frozen reserves are a massive poison pill for the Western financial system.
The way i see it Russia is using that money as bait, as a trap essentially almost daring the Europeans to seize it because that will lead to trust in their entire financial system imploding if they cross that line. This however relies on Russia continuing to insist on its lawful ownership of the frozen reserves. I think however that Russia would secretly be quite happy if the Europeans were to make the enormous strategic blunder of pulling the trigger on that theft.
And the smarter Europeans understand this. Problem is that Europe is led by a bunch of fanatics right now who might just be desperate and stupid enough to do it against the advice of their own financial and legal experts.
I understand you completely, I think.
I was impressed Belgium spoke truth to power and seemed reasonable, but now they’ve closed their embassy in Cuba, I’m not so confident.
Russia hasn’t agreed to anything so far. This is just what the US is floating as their initial position, and it’s already not far from what Russia demanded. The point with NATO creep is that it will now be enforced by Russia. These are the conditions, if NATO breaks them then the war restarts. We’ll see if Russia decides that the profit sharing deal is acceptable to them or not.
Ok I see, thanks so much. I should have been asleep a few hours ago, lol. Tomorrow is going to be fun…
lol I’ve been making this same mistake all week