I didn’t mean Trump was a black swan in a historical sense, that nobody could have predicted him. And yes, Trumps have nearly taken over before.

I meant it as a black swan in the sense that nobody could actually predict how such a takeover would change “the Overton window” the OP was talking about. Even though we’ve always known Trump-style rhetoric was simmering just below the surface-- as in whenever some conservative would make a half-assed argument about racism from the perspective that they actually cared, not out of any concern for race or the damage of racism, but as a kind of jokey game, self-referencing just how much they didn’t give a shit or think that it was an issue.

For example, when King County, Washington changed the inspiration for the county name to Martin Luther King. Originally it was named for William King, the VP under Franklin Pierce. Popular opinion has it that the latter King was probably in a gay relationship with James Buchanan, and conservatives launched a campaign against the name change, citing it was “homophobic” to do so, as if they actually gave a shit about MLK or homophobia. They no longer have to play these little games, it’s totally fine for a popular conservative to say more or less whatever the hell they feel like saying about race, gender, sexuality, science, religion.

And now, apparently, it’s suddenly okay to use the “socialist” word. It certainly wasn’t before Trump.