The idea that machines will be as smart as—or smarter than—humans has hijacked an entire industry. But look closely and you’ll see it’s a myth that persists for many of the same reasons conspiracies do.
“You don’t understand how Eliezer has programmed half the people in your company to believe in that stuff,” he is reported to have told Altman at a dinner party in late 2023. “You need to take this more seriously.” Altman “tried not to roll his eyes,” according to Wall Street Journal reporter Keach Hagey.
I wonder exactly when this was. The attempted oust of Sam Altman was November 17, 2023. So either this warning was timely (but something Sam already had the pieces in place to make a counterplay against), or a bit too late (as Sam had recently just beaten an attempt by the true believers to oust him).
Sam Altman has proved adept at keeping the plates spinning and wheedling his way through various deals, I agree with the common sentiment here that he his underlying product just doesn’t work well enough, in a unique/proprietary enough way for him to actually use that to get profitable company. Pivot-to-AI and Ed Zitron have a guess of 2027 for the plates to come crashing down, but with an IPO on the way to infuse more cash into OpenAI I wouldn’t be that surprised if he delays the bubble pop all the way to 2030, and personally gets away cleanly with no legal liability for it and some stock sales lining his pockets.
I wonder exactly when this was. The attempted oust of Sam Altman was November 17, 2023. So either this warning was timely (but something Sam already had the pieces in place to make a counterplay against), or a bit too late (as Sam had recently just beaten an attempt by the true believers to oust him).
Sam Altman has proved adept at keeping the plates spinning and wheedling his way through various deals, I agree with the common sentiment here that he his underlying product just doesn’t work well enough, in a unique/proprietary enough way for him to actually use that to get profitable company. Pivot-to-AI and Ed Zitron have a guess of 2027 for the plates to come crashing down, but with an IPO on the way to infuse more cash into OpenAI I wouldn’t be that surprised if he delays the bubble pop all the way to 2030, and personally gets away cleanly with no legal liability for it and some stock sales lining his pockets.