DEF CON 33 - Post Quantum Panic: When Will the Cracking Begin, & Can We Detect it? - K Karagiannis
Due to recently published algorithmic improvements (1399 qubits @ 2048 bit key length for Shor’s) and leaps being made in quantum computing hardware (IBM Starling @ 200 logical qubits in 2029, and IBM Blue Jay @ 2000 logical quibits from 2033 and on), encryption is in danger of State-sponsored and high end-criminal attacks as soon as 2030. Particularly susceptible are crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which rely on the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) and are attackable by Shor’s factoring capability on a predictably feasible quantum computer.
Even if it’s 8 physical qubits to 1 logical qubit, 6100 qubits would get you 762 logical cubits.
All I’m saying is that the technology seems to be on a trajectory of the number of qubits improving by an order of magnitude every few years, and as such it’s plausible that in another 5-10 years it could have the necessary thousands of logical qubits to start doing useful computations. Mere 5 years ago the most physical qubits in a quantum computer was still measured in the tens rather than the hundreds, and 10 years ago I’m pretty sure they hadn’t even broken ten.
Its really not on that trajectory tho. Huge inflated numbers of nonfunctional physical qubits are just a way to get funding. Its like AI bros boasting about how much data their LLM model sucked in. The number of usable qubits hasnt changed at all basically. They are still in the stage of figuring out how it even works. Compared to traditional computers, they are at the stage of trying to invent the transistor. Yes in 20-30 years it will maybe be useful, but only if they dont hit physical limitations that prevent scaling. And then the question is FOR WHAT? Dead people cant make use of quantum computers and dead people is what we will be if we dont figure out solutions to some much more imminent, catastrophic problems in the next 10 years.
I mean, the number of logical qubits has gone from basically zero not too long ago to what it is now. The whole error correction thing has really only taken off in the past ~5 years. That Microsoft computer you mentioned that got 4 logical qubits out of 30 physical qubits represents a 3-fold increase over the apparently previous best of 12 logical qubits to 288 physical ones (published earlier the same year), which undoubtedly was a big improvement over whatever they had before.
Strange thing to say. There’s enough people on the planet to work on more than one problem at a time. Useful quantum computing will probably help solve many problems in the future too.