I am aware of the limitations of the wording in the Budapest memorandum. Note the exact words that I used.
Even if the wording was more explicit, do you honestly think Obama and the Americans wouldn’t chicken out in 2014 and would be willing to fight to kick out the Russians from Crimea?
Even if the wording was more explicit, do you honestly think Obama and the Americans wouldn’t chicken out in 2014 and would be willing to fight to kick out the Russians from Crimea?
That’s a difficult one to answer, but yeah it wouldn’t have been a certain thing. However i don’t think we’d have ever arrived in the same circumstances like 2014, had the US given explicit security guarantees.
They didn’t give those, because they didn’t have to and Ukraine wasn’t in a position to force the issue (similar maybe to how there wasn’t any formal pact regarding Russia and NATO’s expansion). But had they signed any explicit form of mutual defense arrangement i’d imagine that this would have lead them to build some form of permanent military presence in Ukraine. And that would almost certainly have changed everything. Would Russia ever dare to invade, if there was a US military base in Ukraine? And in that scenario i would answer your question with “yes, Obama/the Americans would likely not have chickened out and fought back”.
Agreed. If there were American bases in Crimea/Donbas, I don’t think the russians would have invaded in the first place.
I was refering more to a hypothetical scenario with a mutual defense treaty without bases. A situation where they would have to land in Crimea and start sinking the russian black feet and bombing Moscow.
I have my doubts they would act even with a treaty that used explicit wording around a russian invasion in context of mutual defense obligations. I think Obama would chicken out and cite some technicality.
In general, the impression I get is that US leadership in the last ~40 years has been subpar both in the foreign policy arena and in domestic matters.
Dont take this an an Anti-American rant. Our leadership was incompetent and corrupt. Poroshenko had a chance after the Revolution of Dignity, but he messed it up. Zelebakyy is probably the first leader of modern Ukraine that has been competent and has shown some level of achievement.
I am aware of the limitations of the wording in the Budapest memorandum. Note the exact words that I used.
Even if the wording was more explicit, do you honestly think Obama and the Americans wouldn’t chicken out in 2014 and would be willing to fight to kick out the Russians from Crimea?
Sorry, if i missinterpreted your post.
That’s a difficult one to answer, but yeah it wouldn’t have been a certain thing. However i don’t think we’d have ever arrived in the same circumstances like 2014, had the US given explicit security guarantees.
They didn’t give those, because they didn’t have to and Ukraine wasn’t in a position to force the issue (similar maybe to how there wasn’t any formal pact regarding Russia and NATO’s expansion). But had they signed any explicit form of mutual defense arrangement i’d imagine that this would have lead them to build some form of permanent military presence in Ukraine. And that would almost certainly have changed everything. Would Russia ever dare to invade, if there was a US military base in Ukraine? And in that scenario i would answer your question with “yes, Obama/the Americans would likely not have chickened out and fought back”.
Agreed. If there were American bases in Crimea/Donbas, I don’t think the russians would have invaded in the first place.
I was refering more to a hypothetical scenario with a mutual defense treaty without bases. A situation where they would have to land in Crimea and start sinking the russian black feet and bombing Moscow.
I have my doubts they would act even with a treaty that used explicit wording around a russian invasion in context of mutual defense obligations. I think Obama would chicken out and cite some technicality.
In general, the impression I get is that US leadership in the last ~40 years has been subpar both in the foreign policy arena and in domestic matters.
Dont take this an an Anti-American rant. Our leadership was incompetent and corrupt. Poroshenko had a chance after the Revolution of Dignity, but he messed it up. Zelebakyy is probably the first leader of modern Ukraine that has been competent and has shown some level of achievement.