Just watched this video yesterday called “we’re not ready for superintelligence” Is there any truth to it?
Honestly it scared me a lot. With all these different people saying yes it will happen but the only thing they seem to disagree on is how quickly and to what extent makes it even worse.
Mostly I wanted to start a discussion about it and get the opinions of others.
I definitely think it’s way too optimistic having people essentially revolt because of this. If the usa hasn’t revolted with the current government why should it when agi advances rapidly?
I think the people who are saying AGI is close are AI companies self. Marketing.
Scientists are laughing about that statement.
The document that the video is based on is not science, it’s a fancy blog post.
I lean towards 20-30 years if ever for AGI if ever, but that assumes the world doesn’t fall apart from climate collapse before then. Severity and frequency of once in a lifetime weather calamities has increased dramatically. Over one week this year, the USA had 4 separate once in a thousand year flooding events. And there’s no reason to think that this will decrease.
I think the struggle to survive and recover from disasters and maintain food and energy production will impede major development in this area.
Its almost certainly wont happen in 2027 at this point, the current pardigm is fundamentally limited by lack of data and that reinforcement learning is a flop and synthetic data is a mixed bag. Progress has stalled. Its not really 100% certain at all that it is actually possible in any meaningful sense, intelligence may be capped in some way by physics for all we know.
But yeah, its at least a non-zero risk. I’d say climate change is a bigger one atm though.
IMO, it is a zero risk because superintelligence isn’t real.
Corporations want digital slaves so they can stop paying for human labor, but human-equivalent intelligence requires human-brain-equivalent compute. It can’t be done any easier, because if it could then something on earth would have evolved brains which use that more efficient algorithm.
The human brain costs about 10 watts of energy to run. Simulating an entire brain in real time would require more compute than the world’s fastest supercomputer, El Capitan, which costs about 30,000,000 watts of energy to run.
They’d need to model a digital brain with a digital body in a digital environment and then train it to perform the desired task, all the while justifying the billions of dollars being spent on the project as somehow leading towards something better than just paying a human to do it.
El Capitan uses 30 megawatts, not 30 kilowatts
Whoops, slipped a couple of digits. XD
@[email protected] Here is the video’s thumbnail.
I use an Extension called vidIQ to find and use the video thumbnail easily. The current thumbnail will be shown just below the video view count.
