cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3952271

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Russia appears to have teamed up with a Libyan warlord to trigger a fresh migrant crisis in the European Union

The European Commission is investigating a series of unusual flights from Minsk to Benghazi amid growing concern that Russia may be helping to drive a new wave of irregular migration to southern Europe, an EU official says. …

A sharp increase in the number of flights between Minsk and Benghazi, operated by Belarusian carrier Belavia, have raised suspicions in Brussels of possible coordination with Libyan authorities in eastern Libya – a region controlled by strongman Khalifa Haftar, who maintains close ties with the Kremlin.

“The frequency and nature of these flights raise questions about potential facilitation of irregular migration flows,” the EU official said.

Between January and June 2025, more than 27,000 migrants arrived in Italy from Libya, while over 7,000 reached the Greek island of Crete – triple the number from the same period last year.

Europe has faced a similar situation before. In the summer of 2021, Belarus was at the centre of a migration crisis on its borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Russia was believed to have been indirectly involved in that crisis, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko playing a central role – facilitating the issuance of visas, organising flights, and transporting migrants from the Middle East and Africa to Minsk. Brussels now fears Moscow may be attempting a similar strategy via Libya, weaponising migration to sow division within the bloc. Ankara’s shadow

But Greece believes the EU is overlooking another player in the current crisis: Turkey.

Athens is alarmed by Ankara’s recent diplomatic overtures to both Libya and Italy. Last Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted a trilateral meeting in Ankara with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Libyan representatives to discuss migration and energy cooperation – a meeting from which Greece was pointedly excluded. Greek officials fear that the meeting marks a pivot in regional alignments, particularly given Turkey’s recent rapprochement with pro-Kremlin Haftar and plans to reopen its consulate in Benghazi.

Athens is also concerned by Ankara’s efforts to implement a controversial maritime border agreement with Libya, which ignores the existence of the Greek island of Crete.

The EU does not recognise the maritime deal, the EU official reiterated, noting that the issue was raised by the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, during her visit to Turkey last January.

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