Recently Hangzhou, Zhejiang based Unitree announced a humanoid robot that costs just 39,999 yuan, or 5,900 USD.
It is capable of doing complex movements like hand stands, cartwheels, punching, lying down prone, and standing up again on its own. It weighs 25 Kilos, and is about as tall as a smaller sized human.
I think this is an area we should be paying very special attention to. AI is getting all the hype, but it’s unlikely to have a big effect on the outcome of a war. Being able to mass produce soldiers though? That’s a game changer.
These robots would work in any terrain a human can once water proofed, and could be remotely piloted by human soldiers. Retrofitting them with weapons systems would be simple, and they could have armor plating added on so they could just stand under heavy fire and be fine. You’d need higher caliber rounds to take them out. (Exactly the things that the US is floundering to secure metals to make since China controls so much of the rare earth industry).
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that these could be the equivalent of the invention of the musket. If WW3 happens sometime in the next decade i expect the world to be shocked as it becomes clear war will never be the same again. It’s like a countdown has begun where everyday we get closer to the moment one of these is first used in a peer conflict, and an arms race begins. One China already seems to be winning before it even starts.
Your not wrong for certain uses, but you need to keep in mind soldiers spend the vast majority of their time simply occupying places during a war. Quadcopters can be useful for surveilance in these cases but if that’s all you have your not gonna be able to hold a city. These can patrol indoor areas, engage in melee combat to detain people, stay at strategic locations long term in a low power mode, etc.
You also have to consider stealth. Drones that fly are loud. Ground robots could move entirely silently, and use terrain cover to approach enemy positions undetected.
If your goal is to blow something up flying drones are the way all day. If your goal is to infiltrate a populated city, find a target, and eliminate or capture them. Without being seen, and without killing a bunch of innocent people in the process. You need either human special forces, or a robotic equivalent. Once you can simply allow the human special forces to pilot a robotic drone instead of going in person there is no reason not to do it.
A special forces operator like Delta Force can cost 1-2.5 million dollars to train. If one dies on a mission that’s a huge time, and resource cost to replace them. Allowing them to still do their jobs without having to risk their lives. Potentially even performing suicide missions without dying. Is massive. You’d much rather lose a machine that costs under 50k to replace and can be mass produced than lose a specially trained multi-million dollar value human operator who takes much longer to train.
As for your point about tool use. War is economic more so than it is about peak efficiency. Sure you could make a robot that has weapons built in, but then you’d need seperate robots for each type of weapon/situation. We already have massive stockpiles of weapons made for human use, and factories to make more of them. Then for example lets say you can make 50k robots. if you make 25k as basic infantry, 10k as amphibious, 10k with anti-air, 5k with sniping capabilities. Your locked in to those configurations. If suddenly you need more anti air you have to make more. But if you make 50k robots that can simply switch loadouts for different situations by using tools you can easily move them between these roles depending on where they are needed. Even if they’re a little bit less effective in terms of pure combat the multi-role use, and economics of scale make up for that by far.