Yes. That’s a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
They could, for example, ask for demographic information of the sampled population and weight that to the general population (let’s say that 50% of the people who answered are males from 70+; but they just represent 10% of the general population, then that answers are weighted to represent only 10% of the final results).
That’s how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don’t need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
They just asked 1502 people by phone.
Yes. That’s a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
There’s a lot more than that, check the sampling methods on this Wikipedia article:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_(statistics)
They could, for example, ask for demographic information of the sampled population and weight that to the general population (let’s say that 50% of the people who answered are males from 70+; but they just represent 10% of the general population, then that answers are weighted to represent only 10% of the final results).
There’s a lot of theory behind sampling.
I’m sure it is probably fine. I’m just being flippant.
That’s how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don’t need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.