Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.
Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.
Hey @[email protected], you seem like someone that might have a good perspective on a question I have. While I’ve always noticed a habit of people to down vote news they don’t like on Lemmy, I feel as though there has been a lot more of this occurring in the last, say, two weeks around election news.
Anything that seems to indicate bad news for Harris or is critical of democrats tends to get rapidly buried, often with little engagement. I worry this is symptomatic of a broader denialism on the left/Harris wing, and that it might lead to another election where people are caught by surprise by something that was a very plausible possibility the whole time.
Since you see a lot more posts than I do week in and week out, does that phenomenon seem to be intensifying over the last week or two, or have I just been noticing it more and it’s always been happening?
Oh, it’s been going on long before now. Negative news about Biden and Biden polling was being buried before, that didn’t really stop until his train wreck of a debate performance.