What Past Polling Misses Can Tell Us About the 2024 Election
www.nytimes.com
Pre-election polls will never perfectly match election results. But an examination of three decades of polling helps put recent misses into context.
  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    12·
    18 hours ago

    The biggest polling “miss” is 6% and that was one state 16 years ago, but they even included one that was <1%

    Standard margin of error is around 3.5% with a 95% confidence, and the vast majority of “misses” were well within that. Depending on survey tho, margins if 5% or even higher do happen. But even if it was 2.5% over the margin of error, polls aren’t perfect representation and sometimes it does happen.

    The big problem is what they spend the first part of the article on: national polling

    It’s completely useless, it shouldn’t be because we should be using a national popular vote. Until we fix that a national poll means nothing.

    I just hate people got obsessed with the whole “polls aren’t real, they’re dirty liars!” When polls showed Biden wasn’t going to be able to get it done.