Another huge part will be the many Ukrainians, who moved to the Western parts of the country. Especially in combination with the destruction of the war, we likely see the east loosing a lot more population when it is all done.
Also it will be intressting to see what happens to Russia. Their problem is not on the same scale, but imho it is much more likely that the Russians who fleed the war will never return, while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster, whereas Ukraine getting at least some help from the West. So it seems likely to me that a lot of Russians leave the country at that point as well.
Russia’s economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin’s war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.
In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.’ More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.
Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.
The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin’s government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:
It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.
So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don’t know of a single study that says the same about Russia.
Ukraine has a population decline since 1993. The war makes the situation worse, but even returning refugees and a likely baby boom still means that they are in structural decline.
The bigger issue for Russia is honestly Central Asia. With the Russian economy in trouble the income gap is closing. At the same time they are looking for alternatives. South Korea for example is an obvious choice given the situation in the country and the Korean diaspora in Central Asia.
The other big problem for Russia might just be independence movements.
Long before that. I grew up in West Toronto, and the area was full of older Ukranian immigrants from the 1970s who immigrated to Canada with mysterious sources of wealth. They all landed and bought businesses. Seems like this was the model for Ukranians who did well in the Ukraine, get rich and GTFO.
if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster
Their economy is and will be a disaster no matter how the war ends. They’ve spent everything and then some. Their reserves are gone, their currency became worthless, they lost a million+ of skilled workers, and Europe has all but stopped buying their resources.
They’re completely fucked. The way things look now, there will be another perestroika.
while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster
Russias economy is held up only on war efforts and even that is starting to shake. Every other business is struggling to get workforce and a lot of the supply chains are lost due to sanctions. It doesn’t really matter if they win or lose, economically they’ll be in a very difficult situation when the war ends.
Russia is also facing losing their fossil fuel customers. Even if (big if) the war ends today and sanctions are lifted: There will be a some countries and companies buying russian gas and oil, but Europe has now their new LNG terminals with some long term contracts. We are also building renewable energy in a rapid speed and every solar panel and each new wind turbine is producing energy that Russia can’t sell after the war. And that is happening all over the world, which is really bad news for Putins perspective after the war.
Another huge part will be the many Ukrainians, who moved to the Western parts of the country. Especially in combination with the destruction of the war, we likely see the east loosing a lot more population when it is all done.
Also it will be intressting to see what happens to Russia. Their problem is not on the same scale, but imho it is much more likely that the Russians who fleed the war will never return, while there also is a good chance that if Russia looses, the economy will be a complete disaster, whereas Ukraine getting at least some help from the West. So it seems likely to me that a lot of Russians leave the country at that point as well.
Russia’s economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin’s war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.
In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.’ More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.
Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.
The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin’s government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:
So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don’t know of a single study that says the same about Russia.
Ukraine has a population decline since 1993. The war makes the situation worse, but even returning refugees and a likely baby boom still means that they are in structural decline.
The bigger issue for Russia is honestly Central Asia. With the Russian economy in trouble the income gap is closing. At the same time they are looking for alternatives. South Korea for example is an obvious choice given the situation in the country and the Korean diaspora in Central Asia.
The other big problem for Russia might just be independence movements.
Long before that. I grew up in West Toronto, and the area was full of older Ukranian immigrants from the 1970s who immigrated to Canada with mysterious sources of wealth. They all landed and bought businesses. Seems like this was the model for Ukranians who did well in the Ukraine, get rich and GTFO.
Their economy is and will be a disaster no matter how the war ends. They’ve spent everything and then some. Their reserves are gone, their currency became worthless, they lost a million+ of skilled workers, and Europe has all but stopped buying their resources. They’re completely fucked. The way things look now, there will be another perestroika.
Russias economy is held up only on war efforts and even that is starting to shake. Every other business is struggling to get workforce and a lot of the supply chains are lost due to sanctions. It doesn’t really matter if they win or lose, economically they’ll be in a very difficult situation when the war ends.
Russia is also facing losing their fossil fuel customers. Even if (big if) the war ends today and sanctions are lifted: There will be a some countries and companies buying russian gas and oil, but Europe has now their new LNG terminals with some long term contracts. We are also building renewable energy in a rapid speed and every solar panel and each new wind turbine is producing energy that Russia can’t sell after the war. And that is happening all over the world, which is really bad news for Putins perspective after the war.