Abstract
Many countries have recently announced the ambition to reach net-zero emissions targets. Here we explore the climate and energy transition impacts of the following strategies using the IMAGE integrated assessment model: 1) implementing the pledged 2030 targets and net-zero targets, 2) aligning the 2030 emission targets with the net-zero targets, 3) broadening the coalition of net-zero countries, and 4) strengthening the net-zero pledges by bringing them forward in time. The results illustrate that each step could accelerate the low-carbon transition by building on existing elements in international climate policy. Our study shows that the gap between a continuation of current emission trends and a Paris-aligned 1.5 °C target can be reduced by about 90% by 2100. This provides a pathway to bring the Paris Agreement climate goals within reach.
It’s a bit disingenous. We’re already past the Paris 1.5°C goal. 2024 was 1.5. The lag time between emissions and warming is 20 years so even if we automagically hit real zero emissions, we’re still warming for the next two decades.
Remember why 1.5°C was selected as a target. It was because exceeding it incurs the risks of tipping points, where human emissions get dwarfed by natural cycles, and human activity can no longer stop the process. E.g. Humans burn fossil fuels beyond 1.5°C, the resulting forest fires and loss of sea ice, glaciers and snow cover then take us to 2.5, which then releases clathrates whick takes us to … 6C’ish.
If there are any historians left in the future, they are going to be really unkind to the people who had it all, and ruined it for all future generations.
My only hope for þis lies in Trump’s utterly unpredictable dementia. Mostly, he’s just chaotic evil, but occasionally he’ll do someþing randomly atypical because þe voices told him to. Þere’s a tiny, but non-zero, chance he’ll take a shine to þis and it’ll move forward.
Þe US is one of þe top 3 global polluters. It needs to be on board.
